Too many quarantine questions unanswered
The most immediate impact of the 14-day quarantine imposed on travellers to the UK will be on summer holidays. Anyone hoping that the suppression of coronavirus in most of the country might enable them to head for the now-open beaches of Greece, Spain and Italy will have to think again, especially if the “air bridges” proposed by Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, earlier this week fail to materialise.
How many will want to spend 10 days on a Greek island only to endure 14 days of mandatory selfisolation when they return, under the threat of a £1,000 fine if they do not (assuming it is even enforceable)? If other nations insist on British visitors also going into quarantine on arrival, there would be even less point. As for foreign tourists heading for these shores, the Government’s evident aim is to reduce their numbers substantially, whatever ministers claim about their desire to support the country’s tourism industry.
Moreover, the quarantine poses an even greater threat to the long-term viability of the UK economy. Post-brexit, we were supposed to be more open, more welcoming and more global; yet as much of the world opens up, the UK is closing down. What message is that sending to those who might wish to invest here, let alone visit? Some airlines say they will not even bother starting up flights again until August at the earliest. By then, a few may well have gone under.
In announcing the quarantine policy yesterday, the Home Secretary, Priti Patel, said the aim was to stop a resurgence of the virus from foreign arrivals. She also said that the policy will be reviewed every three weeks. But too many questions have been left unanswered. How long does the Government expect quarantine to last in total and what is its exact purpose? Are ministers aiming to eradicate the virus on these shores and close the borders for as long as there is a threat it might be reimported from abroad? In that case, the policy could remain in place for many months.
Or is the plan to buy time until trustworthy testing is available at ports of departure, so that arrivals come armed with documents showing they are Covid-free? In which case, why are countries that have already suppressed the virus, such as New Zealand, not exempt? Or are we relying on our own “world-beating” test, track and trace system which the Prime Minister has promised by June 1, despite concerns over the efficacy of the app? The introduction of quarantine, on June 8, after that system is meant to be in place does not suggest that the Government is confident that it will be particularly effective.
It is the absence of any precision in this strategy – beyond blood-curdling warnings about a secondwave – that is so unsettling, given the enormous stakes in terms of the economic impact. Keeping the R value below 1 is a known target, and that has been achieved. Evidently the Government is concerned that it will go back up again if unrestricted travel is allowed or social distancing rules relaxed.
But they have been elsewhere and there has not been a second wave. There might be in the autumn – and it might coincide with a bad flu epidemic, which would be problematic, to say the least – but no modern economy, and especially a global trading nation like ours, can remain cut off and have its freedoms curtailed for any length of time without long-term, possibly irreparable, damage to the economic and social fabric of the nation.
Ministers have been criticised for not locking down earlier and not imposing restrictions on travellers to the UK at the beginning of this crisis. They now risk being too late to understand that the restrictions and controls need to be eased.
Almost two weeks ago, Boris Johnson tried to persuade the country to take “baby steps” back to normality but even this modest relaxation has failed to convince most local councils that they can reopen some schools on June 1. The quarantine announcement, coming as it does after two months in lockdown, is hardly designed to help restore confidence.
It is the absence of precision in this strategy that is so unsettling, given the enormous stakes