We must change our approach to China, and fast

Beijing’s response to the pandemic proves that China has no intention of becoming more liberal

For many years now, China’s approach to the world – patient, strategic, focusing on the long-term – has been a worry and yet also a reassurance for Western leaders. On one hand, unlike the democracies, Beijing has seemed to have the luxury of time in its attempt to win the “hundred-year marathon”. On the other, its “slowly, slowly” mentality meant China never seemed, in the near-future at least, a serious security threat or geopolitical rival.

The pandemic has jolted democratic leaders out of their complacency. Beijing continues to resist an independent international inquiry into the origins of Covid-19, but we know it lied to the world about the dangers of the virus, silenced the doctors who discovered human-to-human transmission, and manipulated the World Health Organisation, which is led by a director-general whose election China orchestrated.

This behaviour has been compounded by Beijing’s reaction to international criticism. Its “wolf warrior” diplomats and statecontrolled media have begun a misinformation campaign, claiming the virus originated in the US, and insisting that those blaming China are guilty of imperialism and racism. Its reaction to Canberra’s support for an inquiry into Covid-19 was to impose tariffs of more than 80 per cent on barley imports from Australia. When the EU’S ambassadors asked to write a column in the state-controlled China Daily, its Ministry for Foreign Affairs censored the text.

Beijing’s response to the pandemic shows that China is not just another trading partner, a country that will open up and become more liberal the more it is exposed to Western ways. The Chinese Communist Party is an authoritarian bully at home, spying on its people and persecuting religious minorities. Overseas it is a menace, manipulating international institutions, setting debt traps to bring countries under its control, abusing the international trading system, engaging in industrial espionage and using telecommunications technology to embed itself in societies, economies and security systems.

But the pandemic is revealing something else. For China’s attitude and behaviour have changed since the virus started to spread. Its modus operandi over the past few decades can be summed up in a number of Chinese proverbs about strategy. Teaching China’s leaders to mask their true intentions, they advise them to: “Deck the tree with false blossoms.” If a statesman can show enough guile and subtlety, he can trick a rival into making mistakes that allow a rising nation to supplant a superior power. As the proverb explains: “The guest becomes the owner.”

Yet since the contagion started to spread, Beijing has allowed its mask to slip. “On the outside,” a proverb recommends, “be benevolent; on the inside, be ruthless.” But in China’s recent actions, we have seen not a trace of benevolence.

While the rest of the world fought the virus, China declared its intention to build new “research stations” on military bases in the South China Sea. It has become embroiled in a border dispute with India, and some analysts see its hand in another such dispute between India and Nepal. It has sunk a Vietnamese fishing vessel in disputed waters and threatened to shoot down Taiwanese aircraft. In reaffirming its commitment to reunification with Taiwan, it has dropped its promise that reunification must be peaceful.

This week, the National People’s Congress will effectively end the “one country, two systems” policy in Hong Kong. This policy was the result of the deal struck between Britain and China in the Joint Declaration of 1984. Hong Kong would become Chinese sovereign territory by 1997, but its judicial system, capitalist economy, civil rights and governing autonomy would not change for 50 years.

Beijing has slowly eroded the autonomy of Hong Kong, but what it now proposes amounts to the abrupt death of “one country, two systems”. In contravention of the Joint Declaration, new national security laws will not be agreed by Hong Kong’s legislative council but imposed on the city by Beijing. The new laws include severe punishments for “subversion” and “colluding with foreign political forces”, which are incompatible with Hong Kong’s civil rights.

The Joint Declaration is an international treaty, lodged at the United Nations. In full view of the world, China is defying international law and abrogating its obligations. So why does President Xi feel he can show such ruthlessness?

One explanation is that Beijing is read more at telegraph.co.uk/ opinion panicking. Having unleashed a virus on the world, it faces unprecedented scrutiny from the West and mounting questions about public health and economic growth at home, so it may be that Xi is acting aggressively in order to assert himself. After all, authoritarian regimes can never afford to look weak before their populations: their strength is their very purpose.

Perhaps a better explanation is that China has made a conscious decision to become more geopolitically assertive. Already the largest trading nation in the world, some predict the Chinese economy will overtake the US’S within 10 years. Beijing is reportedly increasing its military budget this year by 9 per cent. It is investing $1.4trillion (£1.1trillion) in new technologies by 2025. It has tested making the yuan the world’s first digital currency, to protect itself from future American financial investigations and sanctions. In exercises conducted by the Pentagon, China would defeat the US in “every simulation” of a Pacific war.

Regardless of the explanation, the West’s old assumptions about China can no longer apply. Xi has already made himself China’s president-for-life. “Great historical progress always happens after major disasters,” he recently declared. For China, that progress means the usurpation of the US as the world’s principal power, and the eclipse of the Western-led international order.

That threat is no longer a remote and distant possibility. It confronts us here and now. Together, the West is strong enough to defend our values and interests, but it will take leadership and resolve to do so. We must change our approach to China, and fast.