The new Frankel?

Rising star Pinatubo faces Guineas test of greatness

Pinatubo: phenomenon or phoney, beast or blowout, the next Frankel or another top two-year-old to flop at three? The Godolphin colt faces his moment of truth when he lines up as a red-hot favourite for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket today.

Whatever Pinatubo does today, he will remain a great two-year-old, one of the best of the past 30 years, with a rating higher even than Frankel after winning the National Stakes at the Curragh by nine lengths – a very rare margin of victory at that level. That you cannot take away from him – a failure he cannot be.

But, for true greatness in the thoroughbred world, it is in his Classic year, as a three-year-old, that Pinatubo must excel and prove himself. In effect, his job is only half done and the question is whether he has trained on.

Clues are few. Such is his laid-back character, he gives away little at home, he works with a poker face as it were, although stable confidence in him appears to have grown the closer we have got to the race.

Last year, Pinatubo gave no indication of his ability before he set foot on a racecourse, unlike his stable companion in today’s race, Al Suhail, who is a pigeon-catcher in the mornings.

Hence, the Shamardal colt was sent to Wolverhampton for his debut and, had trainer Charlie Appleby had Ascot’s Chesham Stakes in his sights then, he might not have directed him to Epsom for the Woodcote Stakes a year ago today, either.

But he kept winning and kept impressing. What today will tell us is whether he was just an exceptionally forward two-year-old who was more mature than most in his age group or, equally possibly, whether he truly is an exceptionally talented athlete.

In the National Stakes, he beat Arizona by just over nine lengths. In the Dewhurst, he beat the same rival, who he meets for a third time today, by two lengths. You can argue that several ways; either it was the end of a long season (six runs spread over five months), the soft ground was against him or he was already showing signs of being caught up by his own generation.

The truth is, however, today he should probably still win it by merely standing still in terms of ability, such was his margin of superiority last year, when he was rated 10lb better than the next best among today’s rivals, Kameko.

The last horse to have a higher rating as a juvenile was Celtic Swing, who was heralded like the Second Coming after taking the Racing Post Trophy apart as a two-year-old in 1994. He was rated 2lb higher at 130 and went into the Guineas unbeaten in four starts, but he was beaten a head by Pennekamp at Newmarket. He did go on to win the French Derby, but was retired after his next start.

“People ask me ‘what defines him?’ and I think he’s like any top sportsman at the top of his game, he’s just relaxed,” Appleby said.

“They know that nervous energy isn’t going to get them anywhere and they walk into any arena and know what they need to do at the right time and as a racehorse I think that’s what he’s shown us to date. He’s got that. There’s no swagger about him. He’ll walk round the paddock like nothing’s happening.”

But even Appleby, his biggest fan, cannot be certain whether he has trained on. “He’s hard to get a handle on, watching or even from a riding point of view,” he said. “They don’t get off and say great things about him at home.”

So, what could put it up to him today? Andrew Balding has his horses in fine form and Kameko, the Vertem Futurity winner, will be a popular

alternative to give champion jockey Oisin Murphy a first Classic. He is by the same sire, Kitten’s Joy, as Roaring Lion, who was best on really flat tracks, but he looks the one to push Pinatubo most.

Unlike Balding, who has been sending out winners at a strike-rate of roughly one to every three runners, Aidan O’brien had his first runners only yesterday and, along with Arizona, he runs Wichita, Royal Dornoch and New World Tapestry. However, O’brien is the go-to trainer for this race, having won it 10 times, including four of the past five years.

The story of the race would be Kenzai Warrior, who is unbeaten in two starts. His trainer, Roger Teal, saddled Oxted to win the Betway Abernant Stakes at

Newmarket yesterday and he has form in the race, having nearly pulled off the sporting equivalent of David felling Goliath two years ago when Tip To Win was second in the race behind O’brien’s Saxon Warrior.

Godolphin’s Military March is also highly rated by Murphy, who won on him last year, and there was a stage when Mums Tipple won a sales race at York by 11 lengths and was the next big thing. He could be a lively outsider.

Of course, unless Pinatubo wins by six lengths he is not going to be compared favourably with the explosive Frankel. But last year’s champion two-year-old will take all the beating today. He may not have had the scope of Sir Henry Cecil’s great champion to improve buckets for a winter on his back but, I think, he has the mind.

Marcus Armytage