Scientists claim there is no evidence for two-metre rule
THE two-metre rule has no basis in science, experts say today as the Government comes under increasing pressure to drop the measure.
Profs Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson, from the University of Oxford, say that there is little evidence to support the restriction and called for an end to the “formalised rules”.
The University of Dundee also said there was no indication that distancing at two metres is safer than one metre. The intervention came as two government ministers suggested the rule was likely to be relaxed following a review commissioned by the Prime Minister.
Yesterday shops experienced daily footfall drops of 41 per cent compared with the same day last year, while queues built up outside because of social distancing requirements.
Dozens of the UK’S leading restaurant chains today write to Boris Johnson to warn they are facing bankruptcy if the two-metre rule remains in
place. Examining the current evidence for the two-metre rule, Prof Heneghan and Prof Jefferson looked at 172 studies cited in a recent review in The Lancet and found just five had dealt explicitly with coronavirus infection in relation to distance. Only one mentioned coming within six feet of a patient, and showed proximity had no impact.
“Queuing outside shops, dodging each other once inside, and not getting too close to other people anywhere: social-distancing has become the norm,” they write in today’s Daily Telegraph. “The two-metre rule, however, is also seriously impacting schools, pubs, restaurants and our ability to go about our daily lives.”
A University of Dundee study also suggests 78 per cent of the risk of infection happens below one metre, and there is just an 11 per cent chance of any increased distance making a difference.
Dr Mike Lonergan, senior statistician and epidemiologist, who reviewed 25 papers compiled for the World Health Organisation (WHO), said: “Our conclusion is that avoiding contact is very important and that a one metre distance might be slightly better than just avoiding contact, but the difference is unlikely to be much. These data give no indication that two metres are better than one metre.”
The Government has promised to review social distancing before pubs and restaurants reopen in July amid concerns that many businesses will be unprofitable if it remains in place.
In a letter to Boris Johnson signed by restaurant leaders, the Prime Minister was told: “Unless your Government takes urgent action, shuttered restaurants in towns and cities across the country will be a permanent reminder of the damage this pandemic has done.”
Yesterday, health minister Ed Argar said the two-metre rule may be relaxed if customers agree to wear face coverings. He said the change was one of a “menu of option”’ that was being considered.
“Distance, face coverings, a whole range of other measures – ... all of those will be considered in the context of this review,” he said.
At the daily Downing Street press conference yesterday, Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, said that the scientific base was “constantly evolving” and that changing the rule was “something that can be looked at”. Former Cabinet minister John Redwood warned that businesses needed reassurances now.