Editorial Comment:
We expect to hear officially from Boris Johnson today that, as of next week, many of the remaining barriers to social interaction in England will be removed with the opening of pubs, restaurants, hotels and other elements of the hospitality industry. The guidance that people should remain two metres apart where possible will be reduced to one metre, provided that other measures are taken to lessen the risk of transmission, such as wearing a face covering.
The Prime Minister says the lockdown can be further eased because the risks of picking up the virus have receded markedly. Yet an outbreak among workers at an abattoir in Anglesey, with 158 testing positive, has alarmed scientists and led to calls for the island to be isolated to stop the spread.
In Germany, more than 1,000 staff at a meat processing plant tested positive, pushing the country’s so-called R – or reproduction – rate back well above the target of 1. Epidemiologists have suggested the cold and insulated surroundings in such factories have allowed the virus to spread.
Here, ministers said they were watching these developments closely, implying that the easing of the lockdown might not be as clear-cut as hoped. But when contagion is low, local spikes can have a disproportionate impact on the R rate. A sudden surge of contagion is only as dangerous as the lethality of the virus.
From the outset, the scientific advice has been that this is a mild disease for most people. Catching something that will likely require a week or a few days off work to recover is not a cause for panic. It is the spread of the virus into parts of the population for whom it is potentially fatal that needs to be avoided.
Unless and until there is a vaccine we will have to live with Covid-19. Mr Johnson has said he will not hesitate to “apply the handbrake” once more if cases rise, but while local spikes can be dealt with on a targeted basis, a repeat of a general lockdown would be a disaster.
As Sajid Javid, the former chancellor, writes in the Telegraph today, the Government needs to treat the current situation as an economic crisis first and foremost. To that end, the prospect of emergency planning legislation to let hospitality outlets adapt to the need for outdoor operations is a welcome move. Maybe there is a chance of saving the summer after all.