Tailored lockdown for those most at risk in second wave
A TOOL could be used to identify those most at risk from Covid-19 so GPS can give patients tailored advice, health officials have said.
Scientists at Oxford University are working on a clinical risk prediction model, which aims to give individuals more precise information about the likely impact of the disease on them, instead of a blanket approach.
Health officials said the plans aimed to allow “very individualised discussions” between patients and their doctors in the event of future outbreaks, particularly in winter.
The scheme aims to replace the approach seen so far, with everyone told to stay home during lockdown, and 2.2million told to be “fully shielded”, with a more nuanced strategy.
Dr Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer, said the risk profiles would also help individuals to have conversations with their employers, if they needed to take steps to shield themselves if risks increased.
She told the Downing Street conference that while she hoped to see a “sustained period of very low infection” ahead, she was more concerned about what would happen in winter, particularly if social distancing was not continued. But she said the new tool would help ensure that individuals were given more precise information about their own level of risk.
She said the new tool would allow “a very individualised discussion with your GP or with your specialist”, which would take account of underlying health conditions, and other attributes, such as race or age, which increase mortality rates from Covid.
“If you are of South Asian background and are a young footballer your risk would be very, very low indeed. But if you are elderly, if you have other conditions, obesity, diabetes … all of these things need to be factored together for your own individual assessment,” she said.
Experts supporting the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, known as Nervtag, have been reviewing UK and international emerging evidence on clinical risk factors that contribute to severe outcomes from Covid-19.
Health officials said the new approach should provide more understanding about who is most vulnerable to coronavirus and the advice that they need to manage that risk. Those who continue to be deemed at highest clinical risk may be asked to shield in the future if the virus is spreading.
But others among the 2.2million advised to shield may not be asked to take such stringent measures again.
Yesterday, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said that although the shielding programme was to be paused at the end of July, the list would continue to be updated, so that advice could be issued to individuals in the event of future outbreaks.
He said: “I use the word pause very deliberately, because the list will continue and should the clinical advice be that we need to bring it back in, then that’s what we’ll do.”