Chance of patients dying in hospital plunges

Oxford University experts investigate reasons for welcome dip in fatalities over the past eight weeks

THE risk of dying from coronavirus after being admitted to hospital has fallen dramatically since the beginning of April, analysis has shown.

Around the peak of the epidemic, 6 per cent of people in hospital with Covid-19 died from the virus but figures show that by June 15, just 1.5 per cent were dying, Oxford University figures show .

Experts say doctors may be becoming better at treating people with the virus. There are now several drugs in use or being trialled in the NHS that appear to have an impact on survival.

There may also be fewer people catching the disease in hospital than in May and April.

Those in hospital are more likely to be elderly and already sick and so are more likely to die from the disease if they do catch it. The fall may also be a reflection that people who are less ill are being admitted to hospital with the virus, where previously beds were reserved for the most serious cases.

The researchers considered whether those being admitted to hospital were younger, and so more likely to survive, but the data showed that there are now a greater proportion of deaths over the age of 60 than at the peak of deaths in early April.

Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine, who carried out the analysis with Dr Jason Oke, of Oxford, and Dr Jason Mahon, of the

University of York, said: “The reasons for the declining death rate in hospitals may be a combination of one or all of these factors or due to some other reason, we have not considered.

“In either case, further research is warranted to understand why the hospital death rate has declined so markedly over the past eight weeks.”

The proportion of people dying with Covid-19 in hospitals had been declining considerably since the end of March. Of the 10,387 people in hospital in England with Covid-19 on April 2, 644 died, whereas on June 15 it was 50 of 3,270, a fourfold drop.

“You’d expect 190 deaths if there was the same relationship,” added Prof Heneghan. “It is important to understand the reasons.”

The total number of people dying with Covid-19 in hospitals in England each week has fallen from a peak of 899 on the April 8 to 50 on June 15. The number of people in hospital with coronavirus has also fallen from a peak of 15,702 on April 10 to just 2,891 on June 10.

The figures show that the number of people with Covid-19 in hospital has fallen at a slower rate than the number of people dying, which has led to a drop in the death rate.

Currently, the number of people in hospital with Covid-19 is reducing by 2.4 per cent every day, and halving every 29 days. In contrast, the number of deaths is falling by 4.3 per cent each day and halving every 16 days.