Online tool pinpoints hotspots for second-wave infection spikes

RESEARCHERS have launched a tool to help identify potential coronavirus hotspots down to individual neighbourhoods.

The system can supplement testand-trace technology by highlighting which regions and local areas are most likely to suffer disproportionate potential infections and hospital demand in future infection spikes.

The online tool from Oxford University’s Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science combines key data from multiple sources of known Covid-19 vulnerabilities, such as age, social deprivation, population density, ethnicity and hospital resources.

Researchers say the dashboard is accurate to a granular local level, enabling policymakers to target resources to the most at-risk areas.

It also allows users to adjust for changing infection rates and hospital resource levels.

Prof Melinda Mills, author and director of the Leverhulme Centre, said: “With additional outbreaks and second waves, thinking not only regionally but at much smaller scale at the neighbourhood level will be the most effective approach to stifle and contain outbreaks, particularly when a lack of track and trace is in place.”

For example, the tool shows that Harrow in London would have been a local area with an exceptionally high age-related risk of hospital admissions.

The Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow

was the first to declare a critical incident after a surge in coronavirus patients. Mark Verhagen, lead author of the study, said: “By using our online tool, policymakers would immediately have identified Harrow as a potential hotspot of hospital demand.”

Researchers have produced online maps to identify the most at-risk areas in England and Wales.

The research, published in BMC Medicine, suggests that areas such as the Isle of Wight and Lincolnshire have some of the highest risk factors, as they not only have older populations but also higher levels of social deprivation.

It highlights pressure points including rural areas in Wales, north-east and south-west of England, due to relatively low bed capacity, as well as London and other inner-city areas, from Birmingham to Manchester and Liverpool, due to high population density and deprivation.

‘By using our online tool, policymakers would have identified Harrow as a potential hotspot’