As cases rise in 36 areas, where will restrictions be imposed next?
‘This could lead to perceptions of inequality and stigmatisation of particular ethnic groups’
AS THE city of Leicester braces for two more weeks of lockdown restrictions, the resurgence is no isolated incident, with 36 cities or counties across England seeing a fresh rise in cases.
The Government has consistently said it will consider regional and local lockdowns if necessary. Some areas, such as Doncaster in South Yorks, have seen a larger week-on-week increase in cases. And many of the affected areas are in urban, densely populated and ethnically diverse areas.
The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has deployed four mobile testing sites to Leicester and made thousands of home-testing kits available.
New confirmed cases are rising in almost one in four cities and counties in England as the nation has begun emerging from lockdown. Not all these areas will be at risk of an extended shutdown, with some increases coming from very low bases.
The figures, provided by Public Health England (PHE), only relate to lab-confirmed cases of Covid-19 and are unlikely to provide the whole picture.
Some areas, such as Sunderland, York and the Isle of Wight, detected just a single case in the week to June 26, but had not picked up any the previous week. Others are now seeing much higher numbers, including Leicester, Doncaster and the Medway area of Kent.
In Leicester, lab-confirmed cases are rising week-on-week, from 39 in the week to June 19, to 41 in the week to June 26. It is one of the epicentres of the virus in the country, with the second highest number in the week to June 26. The highest was Kent, which has seen more than 100 infections each week throughout June, but the numbers are currently in decline. With relatively high numbers of fresh cases, Kent could be at risk from surges in localised pockets of the community.
The figure in Medway, covering Rochester, Chatham and Gillingham, has risen from 10 to 17 week-on-week.
Doncaster has also seen a worrying spike – from 11 in the week to June 19, to 32 last week. Derbyshire saw 25 new cases in the week to June 26, up from 23 the week before.
Local spikes are set against a general trend of falling cases across the UK, including in some of the areas that have been worst affected. The number of new weekly infections is now at around 1,000 a day, down from a peak of more than 6,000. While the numbers are falling slowly, there are now encouraging signs appearing in some of the worst-affected areas. In Lancashire, weekly cases fell from 42 to 16 in the same period, and in Essex, from 68 to 14. Both areas have had at least 3,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases throughout the epidemic, some of the highest in the country.
Risk factors have been well-documented during the outbreak, and appear to be playing a part in the upturn.
Although more than three-quarters of district councils and London boroughs are seeing infections fall weekon-week, more than half of the most densely populated areas are now seeing the number rise.
According to data from the Office for National Statistics and PHE, 12 of the 23 areas with more than 5,000 residents per square kilometre have experienced a weekly rise.
In total, 15 of the 33 London boroughs saw more confirmed cases in the week to June 26 than the previous week, suggesting the virus may be some way from being eliminated in the capital. With Covid-19 disproportionately affecting BAME households, some of the most ethnically diverse areas of England are those experiencing upticks in numbers. Eight out of 10 of local authorities with the lowest proportion of white residents are seeing a week-on-week rise.
They include Leicester – where 50.5 per cent of the population is white – as well as the London boroughs of Ealing, where 49 per cent is white, and Brent, where the figure is 36.3 per cent, according to the latest census data.
A paper authored by Clifford Stott, professor of social psychology at Keele University, has warned that the inequality inherent in the virus could prompt unrest under local lockdowns.
Prof Stott said deprived areas would be more at risk of regional lockdown because they were more susceptible to the virus. “Geographical division of a large urban area in the UK will inevitably intersect with ethnic and socioeconomic boundaries,” said the Keele University paper.
“Those in lower socio-economic positions are more susceptible to the virus and therefore ‘lockdown’ will be more likely in areas of poverty relative to wealth. Even if an area cuts across ethnic, residential and economic divides, this could lead to perceptions of inequality and stigmatisation of particular ethnic groups.”