NHS to take two years to recover from pandemic, doctors predict

THE NHS could take up to two years to recover from the pandemic and cope with the number of patients it was dealing with before, medics claim.

The Royal College of Physicians said it was important to be honest with pa- tients about just how long it could take for things to return to normal.

NHS figures show the number of patients waiting a year or more for operations increased tenfold in the last year.

Many procedures now take much longer than they used to, because of extra time on infection control and the deployment of PPE. Meanwhile, the number of beds on wards has been reduced to allow social distancing.

The RCP surveyed 19 specialities to ask medics when they expected their services to return to full capacity.

Seventy per cent thought it would take at least 12 months. Even then, doctors said, the “new normal” would only mean waiting list backlogs were being managed, rather than eliminated, and services being stabilised.

In some specialities – including respiratory medicine, which has been hardest hit by Covid-19 – most medics thought it would take two years for services to recover. Cardiologists expect it to take 18 to 21 months for their departments to return to “an even keel”. Around one in 10 patients discharged from hospitals in England after treatment for Covid-19 has been left with acute heart injury.

Non-emergency operations were halted for three months in mid-march, and have only just resumed. Yesterday orthopaedic surgeons warned that year-long waits for hip and knee operations could become the norm.

Prof Andrew Goddard, the RCP president, said in the short-term, medics would have to keep prioritising patients, in order to work within the reduced capacity available. He said: “We also need to be honest with patients that things will take longer and that we are working as hard as possible to restore services to pre-pandemic levels.”

Meanwhile. a survey of 158 NHS trust chairmen and chief executives found more than half were reporting increasing numbers of patients whose health conditions had become urgent by the time they sought help.

The polling by NHS Providers, commissioned by the Commons health and social care select committee, follows warnings that this year could see an extra 18,000 deaths from cancer because of late diagnosis.