Infection rates fell as lockdown eased

Swab testing survey shows the lifting of measures did not lead to an increase in cases that many had feared

THE easing of lockdown restrictions did not lead to an increase in infection rates in England, the largest swab testing survey carried out to date has found.

Although there are fears that releasing measures too soon has led to localised spikes, new data suggest that there was no overall rise after certain restrictions were lifted such as non-essential shops reopening.

According to Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori, community prevalence actually fell after lockdown measures were relaxed, from 12 infections per 10,000 people in May, to eight in 10,000 by mid-june to early July.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said: “This research highlights how, thanks to everyone’s efforts and sacrifice, alongside targeted measures to counter the spread of this virus in health and care settings, we were able to keep rates of infection low as some restrictions were lifted.

“However, we must not be complacent. I urge everyone to get a test if you have symptoms, self-isolate and provide your contacts to NHS Test and Trace so we can continue to keep the virus at bay and get back to normal.”

Researchers carried out initial swab testing of 150,000 people in May, while full lockdown was still in place, and again following the easing of restrictions. Out of the 159,199 swab tests car- ried out in the latest two weeks, just 123 were positive.

At any one point in the two weeks be- tween June 19 and July 8, there were on average 39,000 people with Covid-19 compared with 74,000 in May.

The overall reproduction number was calculated at around 0.58, compared with 0.57 during May.

Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said: “We estimate a decrease in prevalence from 0.13 per cent to 0.077 per cent.

“We have to be a little bit careful because the last data were for early July, but we did estimate that the R number was still below one then, so there is a little bit of room at that time for further relaxation without causing the pandemic to return to growth.” In separate research carried out by Public Health England and the University of Cambridge, the number of infections arising each day across England was found likely to be 3,200. By the third week of August there would be between 47 and 91 deaths each day.

This research stated the R rate was now likely to be close to 1.0 in most regions, with the South West potentially above 1.0. The probability of R being above 1.0 is less than 20 per cent for London and the South East and is less than 5 per cent in eastern England.

London, followed by the North West, continues to have the highest attack rate (16 per cent and 10 per cent respectively), which is the proportion of the population who have ever been infected. The South West continues to have the lowest (3 per cent). Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “This report largely confirms what we already know about the trajectory of the epidemic in England. But it is important to realise that the fact that the early relaxations in June did not cause an increase in cases does not mean that further relaxations will have done so already or will do so in the future.”

♦ Doctors have warned the health service cannot shut down to non-covid patients in the event of a second wave.

Prof Neil Mortensen, the president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, had urged the NHS not to use the same sweeping closures of services that were introduced in March.

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, chairman of council at the British Medical Association, told The Guardian patients in need of diagnostic tests and treatments cannot be left “stranded” again.