Resurgent virus feared as infections among under-45s increase by 35pc
FEARS of a fresh Covid-19 surge mounted yesterday as the UK saw its largest rise in new cases since the end of June.
However, data suggest the rise is being driven by more infections in younger people and increased testing.
A total of 1,062 people tested positive for Covid-19 in the 24 hours before 9am on Sunday, nearly a fortnight after Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, warned of the possibility of a “second wave” of infections.
Surveillance data from Public Health England show the infection rate is rising among all age groups under 65, and falling in every age group above 65 – those most at risk.
In the 15-44 age bracket, the infection rate has risen by 35 per cent over the past five weeks. It now almost matches the rate of infection among the over-85s, who have been the most disproportionately affected and at-risk group throughout the pandemic.
It suggests the recent rise in cases is being driven by infections among younger people who may not have previously been picked up by testing.
In the week to Aug 2, the rate of infection among 15 to 44-year-olds in England was 11.9 per 100,000 people – up 35 per cent from the week ending July 5 at 8.8 per 100,000.
It has climbed back to roughly the same rate seen in mid-june, while the infection rate among the over-85s has dropped dramatically before levelling off. At the height of the pandemic, in the week to May 3, the infection rate was at 302 per 100,000 people among the over-85s, and 44.1 in the 15-44 age bracket.
When accounting for tests, the proportion of new cases being detected under Pillar 1 of the testing regime – for those in clinical need and public health workers – have been falling for weeks.
The average number of new cases per 1,000 tests in Pillar 1 has dropped from 12.6 in early June to 1.4 by Aug 6.
In the same period the number of tests conducted under Pillar 1 has risen from 248,338 in the week to June 7 to 357,242 in the week to August 6 – indicating a significant drop in cases.
Within Pillar 2 – tests conducted by commercial partners in drive-in centres and community testing – there has been a recent uptick in the rate of cases picked up.
In the past two weeks the number of cases picked up per 1,000 tests in Pillar 2 has risen from 8.2 to 9.4.
Over the period the number of Pillar 2 tests carried out in a week has risen from 545,662 to 615,648, suggesting a corresponding rise in cases in the community.
But the overall trend in Pillar 2 cases has been relatively static since early
It suggests the recent rise is being driven by infections among younger people who may not have previously been picked up by testing
July, when accounting for the number of tests conducted. Significantly more tests are now taking place in the UK, with more than one million (1,091,904) conducted in the past week alone.
That represents 14 per cent more than the average weekly number in July and over eight times more than the equivalent figure for April.
Meanwhile, those who are taken to hospital with Covid-19 now have much better chances of survival.
Deaths in intensive care units are at their lowest level since the pandemic began, according to data from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre, with just two deaths in the final week of July.
Although there is a significant lag between spikes in new cases translating into increased deaths, data show that the ratio of those dying from Covid-19 in ICUS compared to those being discharged has fallen, which could indicate that hospitals are grappling with the most severe cases more effectively.
During April approximately two patients were dying for every three discharged, while now one patient is dying for every three discharged.
However, the data for more recent weeks represent just a fraction of the numbers of patients in ICU’S during the pandemic’s peak – in the first week of April, 1,037 patients died from Covid-19 in critical care while 1,354 were discharged.
By contrast, in the first week of July, 19 died while 31 were discharged.