The UK is nearing breaking point and the Unionists must fight back
The SNP don’t deserve their sky-high popularity. It is not too late to defeat their separatist agenda
When Boris Johnson visited Scotland at the end of last month, Scottish nationalists were quick to say he was “in a panic” about the future of the Union. It is a familiar tactic, constantly portraying Westminster’s political leaders as not caring about Scotland if they don’t visit and as panic-stricken if they do. Yet his trip, already followed up with another by Rishi Sunak, shows the Government has rightly decided to turn its attention to a new emerging crisis for the future of the United Kingdom.
The Conservatives north of the border are in a much stronger position than when I made my own repeated but forlorn visits there as Tory leader in the late 1990s. These began with a lonely campaign against establishing a Scottish parliament. I argued it would exacerbate nationalist tendencies rather than satisfy them, as has regrettably turned out to be true. But once it was clear that an Edinburgh parliament was what the voters desired, I took the decision to provide for a separate and truly Scottish Tory leadership, able to embrace devolution and seek to make a success of it.
More than 20 years on, that authentically Scottish Conservative Party has transformed itself into the only viable alternative to nationalism. When it has been led with charisma and a readiness to differ from English colleagues, as under the leadership of Ruth Davidson, it has prospered, and optimism about the Union has resurfaced. Much will depend on the new and talented leader, Douglas Ross, being able to do the same. But in the meantime, the UK has come much nearer to breaking point.
The most serious risk of Brexit has always been the unknowable effect it might have on the cohesion of the United Kingdom. Nationalists will take any opportunity to prise the country apart, and they can see one coming up: the argument about who sets the rules in the UK’S own internal market now that we will no longer be governed through uniform standards from Brussels. The British Government naturally wants to negotiate new free trade agreements around the world that give access to the whole of the UK – other countries want to know that an item exported to England can be sold in Scotland or Wales. But the SNP say they have the right to set rules on such matters as food standards in Scotland, and that London’s proposals for mutual recognition of standards inside the UK are a “power grab”.
With the next Scottish election only nine months away, Nicola Sturgeon can happily escalate this dispute in the coming months to intensify nationalist feeling. Current polls suggest a huge lead for the SNP, and if victorious they will claim a mandate for a new referendum, notwithstanding their insistence in 2014 that the referendum held then was a “once in a generation” event.
The popularity of Sturgeon and her party belies their poor record. Lauded for their handling of the Covid crisis, they have presided over an even worse situation in care homes than in England or Wales. And the rate of excess deaths in Scotland in recent months has been the third worst in Europe after England and Spain. When London has made mistakes, Edinburgh has generally made them, too. As for longer-term performance, under the SNP, Scottish schools have steadily slipped to their lowest international scores in science and maths, dropping below England and Wales in a country once renowned for good education. The record in other matters, from policing to job creation, is little better.
Despite all this, the SNP are well positioned to make the next Holyrood parliament, from 2021 to 2025, a period when the UK is taken to the brink: one referendum away from the destruction of one of the world’s most successful unions. So what can people who are pro-uk do about it?
First of all, Douglas Ross needs all the support he can get to show that there is a strong alternative to nationalism. His resignation as a minister over the Dominic Cummings affair shows he can strike out on his own, and he will need to continue in that vein. Secondly, ministers in London need to weigh the presentation of every announcement they make on the future of the UK. Too often in recent months the devolved administrations have been able to complain that they have not been consulted about changes in policy. That has given them easy excuses for their own opportunism while glossing over the immense support they have received from Treasury funds provided by the UK taxpayer as a whole.
Third, the Government is meant to be considering the recommendations of an independent review by Lord Dunlop into how to make the Union work better. It would be a good idea to publish his report soon and take forward some of its ideas – which are rumoured to include appointing a very senior cabinet minister to oversee cooperation between the four nations, and tackling more issues as a joint endeavour.
These are all necessary moves on the chessboard of politics. But the case for the UK also has to be positioned correctly on the battlefield of ideas, where nationalism feeds easily on the restless discontent of recent years. This involves both a truthful dose of reality and the inspiration of what can be achieved together. The reality ought to be clear – even in the six years since the last referendum, the perils for a small nation setting out on its own have grown greater.
What are the chances of being as creditworthy as with the pound sterling, backed by the almost limitless resources of the Bank of England? What is the prospect of being as well defended in an age of rising geopolitical tension? And how attractive would it be to rejoin an EU now embarking on huge common debts to fund its Mediterranean members? Nationalists need to wake up and see the way the world is moving.
Yet we know by now that warnings, even well-founded warnings, are not enough. We have to rekindle a sense of common purpose. When the global climate change talks take place in Glasgow, they will be there because of what the United Kingdom as a whole can do. We English have to show Scots that we want and need them with us, not to conform with history but to shape the future. For, be warned: this battle, over the next five years, is going to be a very close-run thing.