Writing off Trump

In liberal circles on both sides of the Atlantic, it has become almost an established fact that Donald Trump is going to lose this year’s US presidential election. They deem his presidency to have been such a disaster that they are unable to acknowledge that millions of Americans might disagree. Memories of Mr Trump’s shock victory in 2016 are remarkably short.

Certainly, this week’s Republican National Convention takes place against the backdrop of opinion polls that put the president behind in swing states, and he is widely viewed as having mishandled the pandemic. Yet it will hardly be a comfort for Joe Biden, his Democrat opponent, that Hillary Clinton also enjoyed a healthy lead over Mr Trump in the run-up to the 2016 vote.

While the president has a tendency to make wild assertions, as he showed again last night, he has strong arguments in his favour, too. The economy, cratered by lockdown, is beginning to rebound, and may be in a better position to do so thanks to the cuts to tax and regulation that Mr Trump pushed through earlier in his presidency. He can claim to have kept many of his promises, including to avoid foreign wars, cut illegal immigration and appoint conservatives to key judicial posts. There is also the matter of the appalling violence that has roiled American cities since the killing of George Floyd in May. Mr Trump is presenting this election as a choice between his strong position on law and order and radical Leftists who sanction attacks on private property and want to “defund” the police.

Naturally, Mr Trump’s critics will jump on every piece of evidence that purports to show he is heading for defeat. But he has a better chance of winning than they are willing to contemplate.