Union is a £2,000 benefit to each Scot

SNP’S ballooning deficit means it would be almost ‘impossible’ for nation join EU if it went independent

Nicola Sturgeon’s economic case for independence received a “hammer blow” yesterday after her chief economist published figures showing Scotland’s “dividend” from being part of the UK has surged to almost £2,000 per person. The SNP government’s General Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) figures for 2019-20 showed that each Scot received £1,633 more than the UK average in public spending while tax revenue north of the border was £308 per head less.

NICOLA STURGEON’S economic case for independence received a “hammer blow” yesterday after her chief economist published figures showing Scotland’s “dividend” from being part of the UK has surged to almost £2,000 per person.

The SNP’S government’s General Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) figures for 2019/20 showed each Scot received £1,633 (12.4 per cent) more than the UK average in public spending thanks to the Barnett Formula.

But tax revenue north of the Border, including a geographic share of North Sea oil, was £308 less per head than the UK average.

The Scottish Tories said that together this meant the “Union dividend” per person has increased to £1,941, up from £1,805 the previous year, and separation would require spending cuts equivalent to the entire NHS budget.

Scotland’s notional deficit surged by £2billion to £15.1billion last year and remained by far the highest of any country in Europe.

This was the equivalent of 8.6 per cent of GDP, more than treble the UK figure and nearly three times the 3 per cent required for EU membership. Alister Jack, the Scottish Secretary, said it would be absolutely impossible for a separate Scotland to join the bloc.

But the figures only included the early days of lockdown and the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank predicted Scotland’s deficit could surge to between 26 and 28 per cent of GDP this year. The IFS predicted it would still exceed 11 per cent of GDP in 2024/25, the highest level since the Second World War apart from the current financial year.

David Phillips, the think-tank’s associate director, concluded “the need for tax rises or spending cuts would be starker” under independence and spending restraint would likely be more “stringent and/or long lasting”.

Kate Forbes, the SNP’S finance secretary, denied the figures demonstrated the fantastic deal Scots get from the Union and insisted the “status quo” could not continue. Ms Forbes blamed Brexit and an “unprecedented health and economic crisis” on the ballooning deficit and said a separate Scotland could make different economic choices from the UK Government.

Mr Jack said: “The Scottish Government’s own figures show clearly how much Scotland benefits from being part of a strong United Kingdom, with the pooling and sharing of resources that brings.

“That has never been more important than it is right now. In the face of a global pandemic, the strength and experience of the UK Treasury is helping people in Scotland and across the rest of the United Kingdom.”

Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Tories’ shadow finance secretary, said: “This is a hammer blow to the SNP and a massive setback for separation. Nicola Sturgeon would have to throw away Scotland’s entire NHS, every nurse and doctor, just to come close to balancing the budget in her separate state.”

The Gers report found Scotland’s tax revenues increased by £436 million last year to almost £65.9 billion, but spending rose over the same period by more than £2.4 billion to £81 billion.