Getting back on track

Train operators are preparing to ramp up their services from September, in anticipation of what they hope to be a flood of passengers back onto the railways. Present indications suggest they will be lucky to see a trickle. Both survey evidence from one-time commuters and the growing list of companies that say they have no plans to expect their staff back in the office full-time suggest that Britain’s Tube, rail and bus services may not reach pre-pandemic passenger levels for some time, if ever.

This will leave them in severe financial difficulty. Even before Transport for London was granted a £1.6 billion taxpayer bailout, its finances were in a precarious state because of Sadiq Khan’s ruinous fares-freeze policy. At the start of lockdown, ministers brought the wider rail network under government control to protect operators from plunging revenue. Bus companies have received millions in subsidies, as well.

The dilemma facing the Government is that, with passenger revenues likely to be suppressed for some time, and possibly permanently, it will only be possible to keep public transport going with massive continued subventions from the taxpayer. Much of this will, inevitably, end up targeted at London, and the Treasury will be under pressure to find savings to avert a fiscal crisis. On the other hand, the curtailment of services, or even the closure of some routes, could have a disastrous effect on the economic recovery.

How will they resolve this? At the very least, this ought to be an opportunity to tackle some of the causes of disproportionately high travel costs. The excessive salaries enjoyed by some rail workers would be a good place to start.