Returning to normal will take courage
This week Britain is back in the classroom and, it is to be hoped, gradually returning to the office. The two should not be judged on purely utilitarian terms: as well as being educated, children need to socialise, and so do adults. Getting back to the workplace is good for the mind, and also reduces the risk of being downsized or outsourced. Britain needs the boost to productivity. If we do not grow the economy significantly in the next few months, a debt topping £2trillion will be used to justify crippling tax increases. Officials in the Treasury have been looking for an excuse to raid capital gains, pensions, fuel, online shopping or inheritance tax. If they do so, it will destroy the recovery before it has even begun – and do catastrophic damage to the reputation of the Conservative Party.
Unfortunately, there are signs of institutional reluctance, including among university unions, head teachers and the Civil Service. It is dispiriting that the same ministers trying to encourage the public to return to normal cannot persuade some of their own staff to end home working, but from the depths of Whitehall comes a pertinent question: if there is a second outbreak, the Government will presumably shut the whole country down again, so why bother to come in?
This is why a strong message of direction is so important; why the Government must make it clear that it is acting to avoid a second wave, rather than operating in neurotic anticipation of one. The U-turns and caveats do not always help; the problem with masks and social distancing is that they are designed to facilitate leaving home yet they also give the sense of being under imminent threat. Opening up is almost inevitably going to lead to some rise in cases, because people will be exposed in ways they were not before. That rise might justify targeted or local measures, but it should not panic the public or Government into disproportionate action.
Returning to normal is an experiment that needs to be given a chance to work. It demands clarity from ministers as well as the full backing of the public sector. It also requires workers and parents to weigh up their own risks and operate common sense. In the long-term, Britain needs to beef up its track-and-trace systems and work towards a vaccine. For now, it needs a little courage.