The West is running out of time in Belarus
With increasing foreboding, we see the opportunity for liberty in Belarus slipping away. At best, events have reached a critical point. The Belarusian people must now decide whether they are prepared to insist on self-government, potentially at enormous risk to life and property, or whether, as winter approaches, they will simply retire indoors and grumble at their fate.
Journalists report that nationwide demonstrations against August’s manifestly fraudulent re-election of long-time president Alexander Lukashenko rest only on domestic political opposition to his regime. The demonstrators are not pro-west or anti-russian, we are told. The EU apparently buys this analysis. Its high representative for foreign affairs, Josep Borrell, wrote on Sunday: “This conflict does not pit Europe against Russia, but Belarus against its leaders. Protesters who are denying election results don’t wave the EU flag, but the country’s former flag.”
Journalists and diplomats alike should look at a map. Given a free hand, Russia will not allow another “colour revolution” on its borders. Multiple conversations between Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin in recent days can only mean that Lukashenko knows his political survival (and maybe more) depends on securing a Kremlin lifeline. Putin is more than willing to provide one, and perhaps already is, but it comes at a high price. Lukashenko may not realise it yet, but seeking Moscow’s assistance likely means he is relinquishing power in Minsk, and probably sooner rather than later.
The usual suspects argue that Russia will not risk military intervention; Belarusians, they say, would make the costs to Russia unacceptable, thereby deterring Moscow. Have we already forgotten Putin’s 2005 remark that “the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century”? Ask Georgia and Ukraine, where Russia did intervene forcefully; or the Baltic states, attacked or threatened with offensive cyber operations; or countries still held hostage in “frozen conflicts” such as Moldova. This hardly constitutes effective deterrence. The West’s collective failure to respond effectively means that the citizens of Belarus must decide soon if they truly want liberty and independence. Like it or not, they must choose whether their revolution is pro-west or pro-russian
The EU has been, as usual, long on rhetoric, long on hand-wringing and short on action. By contrast, Donald Trump has been short on rhetoric, short on action and short on attention span. And that’s not going to change, certainly not before the November 3 election, success in which is all that truly concerns Trump. What truly concerns the EU is not yet evident.
To date, the EU’S major contribution has been calling for new elections supervised by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which is already effectively dead on arrival. Worse, by invoking the OSCE – a cotton-candy ball of an international organisation – the EU handed the authoritarians the propaganda line that this is yet another Western intervention under the pretext of bringing democracy, but really only to advance Western interests.
Diplomatically, the only feasible option is quietly approaching Lukashenko through someone he might trust, such as a former European leader retired from politics. This emissary might fashion a
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Lukashenko exit strategy, entailing an acceptable retirement in a distant venue (Spain’s former king may have some ideas) and immunity from prosecution. Such a benign departure might be unacceptable for the high minded, but consider the potentially catastrophic alternatives. And even this diplomacy is a long shot.
Alternatively, the EU must tell Putin privately that Russian intervention in any form will produce unacceptable costs. Germany, for example, can threaten to block completion of the Nord Stream II pipeline until and unless it is satisfied that the Kremlin keeps its distance. There are several substitute natural-gas sources other than authoritarians repeatedly using force to change European borders. Similar disincentives could come from like-minded EU states.
The West’s response may already be too little too late. If so, Belarus will become another entry in what Winston Churchill called “that long, dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience, and the confirmed unteachability of mankind”. But if any opportunity remains, platitudes alone will never make the difference.