Major outbreaks at universities ‘highly likely’, Sage warns

MAJOR coronavirus outbreaks at universities are “highly likely” particularly at parties and in halls of residence, the Government’s scientific advisers have warned.

There is a “critical risk” that students will fuel a national surge of Covid-19 cases when they return home at the end of term, according to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage). “A critical risk is a large number of infected students seeding outbreaks across the UK, influencing national transmission,” it said.

“Epidemic modelling within [higher education] institutions suggests that large outbreaks are possible over a time period of weeks, so could peak towards the end of the term. Peak health impacts of these new infections and outbreaks they spark would coincide with the Christmas and New Year period posing a significant risk to extended families and local communities.”

Government scientists published new advice on the coronavirus risks in higher education last night, as universities across the country prepare to welcome students back later this month. The Sage document said that students play just as strong a role in transmission as other adults do – but evidence suggests that they are more likely to be asymptomatic. This means that they pose a heightened threat to transmission levels because “outbreaks are likely to be harder to detect among student populations”.

Social interactions and accommodation are likely to be a “high-risk environment” for transmission to occur – and asymptomatic cases among students may make it harder to detect, they warned. Scientists suggested that wider-scale testing may help control campus outbreaks.