Absence of a strategy stokes fear of virus

Is Britain drifting into another lockdown? From today, almost two million more people will be living under new restrictions after Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said “concerning rates of infection in the North East” necessitated their imposition there. Residents in the region can no longer mix with people outside their households, and restaurants, pubs and bars will have to adhere to a 10pm curfew. Ministers argue that localised lockdowns are a tool for avoiding even more draconian national measures. Yet not only is the evidence that they achieve their stated aims thin, but by some calculations, 10 million people across the UK are now subject to strict limitations on their daily lives. How many more will join them?

Mr Hancock says that he has not taken these decisions lightly, but the overarching strategy behind them is less than clear. The Government is concerned that a rising number of positive Covid test results will lead, inexorably, to more people in hospital and more deaths. Yet such an insight, contentious as it is, is not a policy in itself. Are ministers planning to prioritise the protection of the vulnerable, to limit the risk they face even as the virus spreads through the community? Or are they seeking to suppress the infection, using test-and-trace technology that is struggling to cope with demand? Or is their belief now that no spread is acceptable whatsoever?

The absence of a clearly articulated strategy, or even an idea of what the Government counts as success, is only encouraging a sense that the country is sliding back towards the dark days of March, but with the added complications of all the other illnesses that proliferate during winter and an economy weakened by the first shutdown. The Prime Minister said this week that a second national lockdown would have disastrous financial consequences for the UK. But unless ministers can convince people that it will never happen, the fear that it might recur will have a chilling effect on public confidence just when it was returning.

Notwithstanding the near-collapse of the testing system, Britain is in a far better position to deal with Covid-19 than it was in March. Greater knowledge of the coronavirus, better treatments, and a population more aware of the risks should result in a lower mortality rate. This, in turn, ought to change the nature of the debate. The UK should not be living in terror of the virus, let alone another lockdown.