Restrictions to tighten as second wave strikes
Johnson prepared to abandon rule of six as surge of infections hits four-month high
BORIS JOHNSON is preparing to replace the rule of six with tougher restrictions on daily life as he warned Britain was in the grip of a second wave of coronavirus.
The Prime Minister said he may have to “intensify” measures that could act as a temporary “circuit breaker” to stem a resurgence of the disease and prevent Britain being forced into a second lockdown.
He is to spend the weekend in Downing Street with officials considering options including closing pubs and restaurants or imposing 10pm curfews and a nationwide ban on friends and separate households socialising. Schools will only be closed as a “last resort”, Whitehall sources said.
The two-week “circuit breaker” shutdown could be announced in a televised press conference as early as Tuesday. It came as daily infections surged to a four-month high of 4,322 and data suggested hospital admissions would be heading back to mid-march levels by next weekend.
Health chiefs yesterday put the temporary Nightingale hospital in Birmingham’s NEC on standby so it could start treating patients within two to three days. Curbs including a curfew on pubs and restaurants and a ban on socialising outside of households were also announced yesterday across parts of the North West, Midlands and West Yorkshire from Tuesday. It means around 13million people now face local restrictions.
Industry chiefs warned that further measures could cost thousands of jobs. Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of UK Hospitality, said: “We’ve still got one million people in hospitality whose jobs are in part or in full supported by furlough, which ends in October,” she said. “If we can’t bring those people back now, then we will struggle to bring those jobs back after a circuit break.”
Hannah Essex, the co-director of the British Chambers of Commerce, urged the Government to “do everything in its power to avoid further national lockdowns that will cripple business”.
She said: “Any new restrictions must be accompanied by a comprehensive support package for the hardest hit firms forced to close or reduce capacity through no fault of their own.”
Speaking on a visit to Oxfordshire, Mr Johnson said: “Clearly when you look at what is happening you’ve got to wonder if we need to go further than the rule of six.
“So we’ll be looking at the local lockdowns we’ve got in large parts of the country now. We’ll be looking at what we can do to intensify things there, to help bring the rate of infection down there. But also looking at other measures as well. We are now seeing a second wave coming in.
“I don’t want to go into a second national lockdown at all. That’s the last thing anybody wants. I don’t want to go into bigger lockdown measures at all. We want to keep schools open,” he said.
Government advisers are pressing for rapid action and are understood to have proposed the two-week period of national rules as the “circuit break” to stem the rise in coronavirus. It had been thought it could be delayed to late October to coincide with the schools’ autumn half-term but Public Health England said data published yesterday could be a sign of “far worse things to come”, as the Office for National Statistics said cases had almost doubled in a week to 6,000 a day in England, its worst assessment since mid-may.
Last night Treasury insiders signalled a two-week “circuit break” would be “far better” than being forced into a full lockdown in several weeks’ time as a result of no further action being taken. Another source added: “Over the weekend there will be a lot of work to draw up measures, get the science and all the options out. What can we implement that doesn’t tank the economy?”
Ministers are understood to be worried about the impact of the return of students to universities. St Andrews yesterday became the first to urge a voluntary 7pm curfew on students to restrict socialising.
Susan Michie, the professor of health psychology at UCL and a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, warned ministers not to repeat the mistake of the March lockdown in being too slow.
“We need a stitch in time. We need to learn the lessons of the spring. Every day’s delay to a step change in measures to restrict transmission when it is increasing exponentially will be expensive in terms of health and lives in the short term and the economy in the long term,” she said.
She proposed closing pubs, bars and restaurants, reducing the number of households meeting, a return to essential travel only and working at home if possible, online lectures at universities where possible and extending furlough until next year as Germany had done.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, said the country was at “probably the most critical point” since lockdown was imposed in March.
She will decide the next steps for Scotland over the weekend, and disclosed that she had asked the Prime Minister to convene a Cobra meeting for a Uk-wide discussion.
And Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, warned that lockdown restrictions were “increasingly likely” in the capital after he held an emergency meeting with the Government and council leaders.
WHEN Boris Johnson appeared before the Commons liaison committee on Wednesday he made his distaste for a second lockdown abundantly clear.
Such a measure would be economically “disastrous” and “completely wrong for this country”, he told MPS.
Yet despite his rhetoric, the Prime Minister was by no means in denial about the resurgent outbreak.
Speaking to The Sun that afternoon, he referred to graphs that appear to show a second wave as “a double hump” camel, saying the trend would inevitably “feed through to mortality”. How, then, to square the circle? A few hours later, Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty, the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer, came to Mr Johnson with what appeared to be a solution. Warning that the number of deaths by the end of October would rise significantly without further interventions, they proposed a time-limited “circuit break”. The measures could include asking pubs and restaurants to close for a twoweek period, or to observe limited opening hours.
Crucially, it is understood it would see schools and workplaces kept open.
Modellers on the Sage scientific advisory group proposed implementing the partial lockdown during the October half-term, at the end of the month, to minimise the impact on education.
Already that day, ministers had signed off on new localised restrictions across much of the North East.
But on the question of nationwide measures, no final decision was taken.
Instead, it is understood that aides pencilled in next Friday for Mr Johnson to announce future measures to combat the virus, most likely the circuit break to coincide with half term.
By yesterday morning, however, the view in Whitehall was changing fast.
Matt Hancock conducted a round of interviews that left no doubt about how rattled some in Government were.
“We are seeing an acceleration in the number of cases. And we are also seeing that the number of people hospitalised with coronavirus is doubling every eight days. I fear more people will die.”
Over the next few hours, an avalanche of fresh data appeared to justify the Health Secretary’s gloom.
The weekly ONS infection survey indicated there were 6,000 new cases a day in England from Sept 4-7, compared with 3,200 the previous week.
It meant at least one in 900 people were now believed to have the virus.
Meanwhile, Public Health England figures up to Sept 13 showed the rate of hospital admission per 100,000 rose among those aged 85 and above to 10.2 compared with 5.2 the week before. Comparable leaps were evident in younger pensioners – 1.5 to 2.2 among 65 to 74s and 3.3 to 4.6 in the 75 to 84s.
Intensive care admissions approximately doubled. As of yesterday, 115 Covid patients were on mechanical ventilators in England – compared with 63 the week before.
Yvonne Doyle, the PHE medical director, said: “We’re seeing clear signs this virus is spreading widely across all age groups and I am particularly worried by the increase in rates of admission to hospital and intensive care among older people. This could be a warning of far worse things to come.”
No10 will have been aware of the deteriorating situation on the Continent, amid fears the UK is following the same path as France and Spain. Infection rate in Spain has hit 292.2 per 100,000 people, and 172.1 in France.
At some point yesterday Mr Johnson’s announcement for next Friday was brought forward to Tuesday.
A source said: “We were looking at the figures saying October is too late.
“There are hawks and doves. The hawks were saying we need to do something in the next few days.
“It’s a circuit breaker, not another national lockdown unless things turn very bleak. The question is what can we do that is not a lockdown but puts the skids on Covid. Over the weekend, there will be a lot of work to draw up measures, get the science and all the options out. What can we do that doesn’t tank the economy?”
There may be a temporary ban on separate households socialising. Pubs and restaurants could be closed or subject to shorter hours. The prospect of a return to encouraging people to work at home has not been ruled out but there will be no school closures.
Prof Susan Michie, a Sage member, warned the Government not to repeat the mistake of the March lockdown.
“We need a stitch in time. We need to learn the lessons of the spring,” she said. “Every day’s delay to a step change in measures to restrict transmission when it is increasing exponentially will be expensive in terms of health and lives in the short term and the economy in the long term.”
‘We are seeing the number of people hospitalised doubling every eight days. I fear more people will die’