Erdogan’s Ottoman dreams will fall foul of Putin

Turkey’s intervention in the Armenia-azerbaijan conflict threatens to cause a rift with the Kremlin

It has become an all-too-familiar, if depressing, feature of the Middle East that, wherever there is conflict, the malign influence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is never too far from the action.

The recent escalation in tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, for example, can be attributed to the alliance Mr Erdogan has formed with Libya’s Islamist-dominated Government of National Accord, which has lent its backing to Ankara’s claim to the significant oil and gas reserves that have been discovered in the area.

Similarly, the rockets fired at Israel by the militant Palestinian group Hamas, in response to the peace deal announced last month with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, was just as much a reflection of Mr Erdogan’s disapproval of the initiative as it was of the Hamas leadership’s refusal to countenance any form of accommodation with the Jewish state.

So the fact that Turkey now finds itself playing a central role in the South Caucasus over the disputed territory of Nagorno-karabakh is entirely in keeping with Mr Erdogan’s increasingly aggressive attitude towards issues that he believes concern Turkey’s wider strategic goals.

In the long-running dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan for control of the disputed region, Mr Erdogan is backing the Azeris to regain the predominantly Armenian-inhabited territory, which declared its independence from Baku in the chaotic aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early Nineties.

Turkish support for Azerbaijan is perhaps unsurprising in view of its problematic history with Armenia. The Turks are accused of committing genocide against the Armenian people both during and after the First World War, with 1.5 million Armenians estimated to have been killed or to have lost their homes.

The Turks make much of the fact that many local Azeris speak a dialect of Turkish, and the two countries regularly hold joint military exercises. More recently, Ankara has backed demonstrations in Azerbaijan calling for Nagorno-karabakh to be returned to Azeri control, and the Turks have been accused of supplying arms and mercenaries to Baku for use against the Armenians.

The pressure on Turkey from the West, moreover, is likely to intensify following this week’s reports in The Telegraph that Turkish-made cluster bombs may have been used against Armenian positions. The munitions, which scatter bomblets over a wide area, are banned under a global treaty because of the risk they pose to civilians.

Mr Erdogan certainly lost no time in declaring which side he was on when the violence first erupted last week, tweeting: “The Turkish people will support our Azerbaijani brothers with all our means as always,” adding for good measure that Armenia was “the biggest threat to regional peace”.

The distance between Azerbaijan and the Mediterranean spans nearly 2,000 miles, but Mr Erdogan’s willingness to involve himself in the latest flare-up in the Caucasus is, like his meddling in the eastern Mediterranean, all part of his attempts to transform Turkey into a major regional power. Whether it is driving the Kurds from their homes in northern Syria, or acting as a peace broker to resolve the differences of rival Palestinian factions, Mr Erdogan is determined to expand Turkey’s influence wherever possible.

He is often accused of harbouring plans to recreate the glory of the Ottoman Empire, and a recent map of “Greater Turkey”, published by one of his supporters, suggests the extent of those ambitions. The area claimed includes parts of Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Syria, Iraq, Georgia and Armenia – which might explain Mr Erdogan’s support for Azerbaijan in its current clash with Yerevan.

Mr Erdogan’s ambitions for Turkey are not, though, without their challenges. Turkey’s aggressive conduct in the Mediterranean, where it has been accused of provocative acts against Greece and Cyprus, has drawn censure from the EU, with some member states calling for the imposition of sanctions. The Turkish leader’s behaviour is also likely to exacerbate tensions with Nato, of which Ankara retains membership. Canada yesterday became the first Nato country to react by banning the sale of drone technology to Turkey, following claims Turkish drones have been used against Armenian targets.

An even bigger obstacle will be the opposition Mr Erdogan can expect from Moscow, which entertains its own dreams of reclaiming former glories. Although Mr Erdogan has sought to improve ties with Russia, and recently negotiated a multi-billion pound arms deal with the Kremlin, tensions remain on numerous fronts, such as Syria and Libya, where the two countries have competing interests.

The same is true with the NagornoKarabakh issue, where Moscow’s support for Armenia is influenced by the fact that the country plays host to an important Russian military base.

Any support Mr Erdogan provides to Azerbaijan in its military campaign against Armenia puts him at odds with Moscow, a move that could seriously hinder his dream of reclaiming Turkey’s former Ottoman glory.