Sage urged PM to order a harsher lockdown
Johnson overruled scientists who called for measures tougher than three-tier system
BORIS JOHNSON overruled government scientists who wanted him to impose tougher lockdown measures, it emerged last night.
The Prime Minister yesterday announced a new three-tier system which he said would simplify the complex and confusing rules imposed on different areas.
The lowest tier, for “medium” risk areas, will involve restrictions on the “Rule of Six” and 10pm curfews for pubs and restaurants, while the middle tier, for “high” risk areas, will ban household mixing indoors.
The top tier, for “very high” risk areas, will force pubs to close unless they can operate as restaurants, as well as banning household mixing indoors and outdoors, and advising against travel to and from those areas.
But papers released l ast night revealed that scientists had urged him to go further, with national measures such as stopping all household mixing, advice to work from home and the closure of all pubs, restaurants and cafes.
Papers from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ( Sage) show they called for an immediate introduction of national interventions, saying the failure to take such measures could result in “a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences”.
The papers emerged just hours after the chief medical officer and Sage member, Prof Chris Whitty warned that the new measures did not go far enough during a televised press conference.
Prof Whitty said: “I am not confident, and nor is anybody confident, that the tier three proposals for the highest rates, if we did the absolute base case, and nothing more, would be enough to get on top of it.”
The newly released Sage papers last night disclosed that the Government’s scientific advisers had called f or national measures. In the documents,
dated Sept 20 and 21, the scientists called for the immediate consideration of five fresh restrictions, saying none would be sufficient on its own.
They urged ministers to implement a “circuit breaker” lockdown, to advise people to work from home if possible, to ban all contact between households apart from those linked in “support bubbles”, to close all bars, restaurants, cafés, gyms and businesses such as hairdressers, and to put university and college teaching online unless essential. A
related paper, also released last night, warned: “As over 90 per cent of the population remains susceptible, not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences in terms of direct Covid-related deaths and the ability of the health service to meet needs. A package of interventions will need to be adopted to prevent this exponential rise in cases; single interventions are unlikely to be able to reduce incidence.”
Measures could be imposed at a
regional or national level, the papers suggested. But they stressed: “Both local and national measures are needed: measures should not be applied in too specific a geographical area.” Labour’s shadow health secretary last night described the papers as “alarming”.
Liverpool became the only region placed into the toughest “very high” risk tier of the new system yesterday, with intense negotiations still going on in other areas last night. Mr Johnson stepped back from imposing harsh new
lockdown measures on other parts of the north after local leaders refused to accept them.
Elected mayors and council leaders believe they will be complicit in making businesses bankrupt if they agree to close pubs, gyms and leisure centres.
Mr Johnson also faces a battle to win over his own MPS, with dozens threatening to withhold their support when the three tiers are put to votes in Parliament today. He hinted at better news
for vulnerable people as he suggested the Government would change its approach to shielding because of the “mental distress and loneliness” it causes.
Liverpool, which agreed to be placed into the top tier, will receive £14 million of extra funding for testing to help it through the next month, after which the lockdown will be reviewed. But local leaders in other areas were resistant to the idea of agreeing to be put into tier three. The Prime Minister said talks were continuing with leaders in the North West, North East, and Yorkshire and the Humber about the approach in their areas and the support available if they moved into the third tier. He said: “We want to take local authorities with us … if we can’t get agreement, then clearly it is the duty of a national government to take the necessary action to protect public health.”
Andy Street, Tory mayor of the West Midlands, said he was “disappointed” his area was being placed into tier two, adding: “This is not something regional leaders supported.” He said the Government’s approach was inconsistent, as the West Midlands had only a quarter of the case rate of Manchester, which has been placed in the same tier.
Mr Johnson acknowledged there were “anomalies” but said “that’s inevitably going to happen in a complex campaign against a pandemic like this”.
After being praised by Mr Johnson for accepting the measures, Steve Rotheram, Liverpool City Region mayor, claimed last night he hadn’t agreed to them. He said: “It was the Government that decided we needed restrictions. It wasn’t local leaders.”
Ri s hi Sunak, t he Chancellor, appeared to have secured a more “balanced” approach, as plans to close pubs in tier three areas were watered down slightly to allow them to stay open if they could operate as restaurants serving alcohol with a “substantial meal”.
Tory MPS criticised the new system. Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, sought reassurances that areas would not be left in a “permanent state” of restrictions. Philip Davies called on Mr Johnson to “put his trust in the British people to act responsibly”.
A government spokesman said it would not be appropriate to pre-empt the outcome of discussions between ministers and local leaders.