On the brink again

Brinkmanship became a familiar feature of the Brexit negotiations before the UK left the EU in January and is set to be so again as the transition period expires. Today was supposed to be the deadline for a trade deal to be ratified at a summit of European leaders in Brussels.

Boris Johnson said several weeks ago that if an agreement had not been reached by October 15 both sides should “accept it and move on”.

We have reached the appointed date and yet they continue. The EU evidently does not take these deadlines seriously and nor, it seems, does the Government. No 10 says Mr Johnson will decide tomorrow whether to walk away from the table. He is expected to stay.

The deadline that matters is December 31, after which the UK will trade with the bloc on World Trade Organisation terms if there is no deal. Mr Johnson has made clear that he would prefer to avoid this happening and nor is it in the interests of the EU. Rather than impose further unilateral time limits, therefore, the two sides should concentrate on making sure an outcome that neither wants does not happen by default.

However, it is not entirely clear what the EU does want. While Angela Merkel is said to be optimistic about a deal, the French government is making ominous noises about vetoing anything that involves fishing arrangements its trawlermen do not support. President Macron may also be using this issue as a proxy for a wider set of objections, not least over the access of the City of London to EU capital markets. If Paris is intent on blocking any deal that is not struck on French terms then a benign outcome to this process will be impossible to achieve.