‘No sign of a second wave’ as figures show level of deaths is normal

THERE is no sign of a second wave of the coronavirus, experts have said, as figures show deaths are just 1.5 per cent above the five-year average, and are following a normal trajectory for this time of year.

Although Covid-19 deaths rose to 438 for the week ending Oct 9 – an increase of 36 per cent on the previous week – overall deaths rose just 143 above the five-year average, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

There were also 19 fewer overall deaths than the same week last year.

Researchers at Oxford University say the rate would have to reach 1,200 more deaths above the norm before the impact on mortality rates was considered an “excess”.

They also found there would usually be about 1,600 weekly deaths from influenza and pneumonia for the same week.

Deaths from Covid-19, flu and pneumonia are currently running at 1,621, suggesting there is virtually no increase in expected respiratory deaths.

The ONS figures also do not factor in the growing and ageing population, which would be expected to increase the number of deaths over time and which is likely to cancel out at least some of the increase.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford University, said: “There is no sign of a second wave up to Oct 9. In week 41, the number of deaths registered was 1.5 per cent above the five-year average.

“We consider the current data normal variation and only consider it an excess when it gets to two standard deviations, which is about 1,200 excess deaths compared to the five-year average.”

Dr Jason Oke, also of the CEBM, who has looked at total deaths since 2010, said that although deaths were at the high end of what would usually be expected, they were still within normal boundaries.

The figures suggest that people who would normally be expected to die of flu or pneumonia are instead dying from Covid-19.

“Total deaths are tracking at the top but not over,” said Dr Oke.

“Is it because we have nearly an identical deficit of flu and pneumonia deaths for this time of year?” he asked.

The ONS figures show that, since the week ending Sep 4, registered coronavirus deaths in England and Wales have been roughly doubling every fortnight.

However, the country is now enteri ng the winter flu season and an i ncrease in respiratory deaths is expected.

There is virtually no flu in the community at the moment, according to Public Health England.

About 59,000 deaths i nvolving Covid-19 have now been registered in the UK although the figure for loss of life directly caused by the virus is significantly lower.

By mid- October 53,863 deaths involving Covid-19 had occurred in England and Wales, 4,301 were registered in Scotland and 915 were recorded in Northern Ireland.