Second wave death toll may reach 85,000

Leaked Sage documents suggest an end is not in sight, as the PM refuses to reconsider current policy

BRITAIN’S DEATH toll from the second wave of Covid could reach 85,000 – almost double the total so far – according to leaked documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

The “reasonable worst-case scenario” suggests that the number of fatalities could remain high for at least three months, continuing long after Christmas, and even into March.

The modelling, leaked to The Spectator, comes as the UK’S total deaths rose by a further 310, bringing the toll to 45,365. There have also been suggestions that all of England could be placed under Tier 3 restrictions by Christmas, if infections continue to keep rising.

The modelling, drawn up in late July, outlines a situation in which deaths remain above 500 a day for at least three months, peaking at 800 a day.

During the first wave, deaths only remained over 500 a day for five weeks, peaking at 1,100 a day.

While the scenario drawn up by Sage’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza

Group on Modelling estimates death numbers until the end of March, the documents warn the peak weeks could last beyond that. However, on current trends, the absolute peak is likely to arrive sooner – but numbers are expected to remain high for months.

The situation is causing grave concern in No 10, because Britain is doing even worse than the “reasonable worstcase scenario” had anticipated.

Health officials now expect the death toll to reach 500 a day within weeks.

The scenario suggests that at the peak of the second wave around 25,000 beds will be filled by Covid patients – significantly more than the 17,000 in April. While the documents suggest this point will be reached in February, yesterday one of Sage’s advisers said it could arrive by the end of November.

The modelling assumed an R “reproduction” rate of 1 in September, with infection levels remaining “steady” until the end of October. But Britain’s numbers of cases, infections and deaths are running far ahead of that scenario.

By mid-september estimates put the R rate between 1.2 and 1.7, and it is now at 1.6. Latest daily figures show 24,701 lab-confirmed cases – up from 1,295 in September. Government scientists are concerned that the levels are likely to remain high until long after Christmas.

While 85,000 deaths this autumn and winter may be directly caused by

Covid, a further 27,000 excess deaths from other conditions, such as those caused by “lack of NHS capacity” are feared, the documents suggest.

The Government is under intense pressure from many Tory MPS to abandon its tier system of lockdowns and prioritise the economy instead. But Mr Johnson has refused to back down from his current policy, and said even tougher restrictions may be needed.

The modelling also assumes that restrictions to l i mit transmission between households will remain in place until the end of March.

The scenario makes other assumptions, which now appear to be optimistic. The 14-page document suggests immunity acquired from Covid would be maintained over the course of the nine-month period. Earlier this week, British research showed immunity appeared to wane “quite rapidly”.

A Government spokesman said: ”As a responsible government we continue to prepare for a wide range of scenarios, including the reasonable worst case scenario.

“We have made significant strides in our approach – we have provided the NHS with an extra £3 billion in funding to help it continue to provide high-quality care as we head into winter, treatments like dexamethasone have been proven to save lives and there is promising progress in finding a vaccine.”