Russell adds to belief Scots can end 18-year wait
Captain Hogg backs restored fly-half to manage the wet and windy conditions and deliver long overdue success in Wales
Earlier this week Warren Gatland questioned Scotland’s ability to win on the road. Not for the first time, the Lions coach asked some uncomfortable and largely rhetorical questions about the Scots’ mental hardness and resilience.
Nor is he the only one to be asking such pointed questions: despite the Scots having won their past three Tests, including a comprehensive victory over France, and notwithstanding a Welsh losing streak that stretches to four Tests, the bookies still expect Wales to win by between five and eight points.
Since their last win in Cardiff in 2002, the Scots have turned losing in Wales into an art form, the masterpiece being 2010 when, leading 24-14 with three minutes to go, they lost 31-24. Often it has not even been close, with Wales’s 51-3 win in 2014, when Stuart Hogg was dismissed for tackling Dan Biggar in the air, the Scots’ nadir.
Yet there is a palpable sense that this is Scotland’s big chance to win in Wales and claim a third successive Six Nations win for the first time. The Scots fancied themselves to win the postponed Cardiff match in March, and since then Wales have faced further defeat and injuries, while Scotland thrashed Georgia last week and, with Finn Russell restored and the Exeter duo of Hogg and Jonny Gray back in harness, are almost fully loaded.
Nor, thanks to the game being played at an almost empty Parc y Scarlets, will the Scots have to deal with the emotive atmosphere generated by the Welsh faithful at their spiritual home. If Scotland cannot win in Wales today, we are entitled to wonder if they ever will.
No player in the Scotland squad has won in Wales, and defeats in the Principality have certainly lost their novelty value. “Eighteen years, that’s long enough for us now,” Hogg, the Scotland captain, admitted. “We feel in a very good place. We believe we could have gone down there and won pre-covid, and we still have the same mindset.”
If Hogg and his men are to win, they will have to defy not just history, but Wales’s desperation to break their losing streak and the emotional pull exerted by Welsh legend Alun Wyn Jones breaking the record for international appearances this afternoon.
A more practical concern is the weather, with the forecast featuring gale-force winds and lashing rain, hardly what an adventurous and free-running Scotland would want.
Wayne Pivac, Wales’s embattled coach, has made six changes from last week’s loss in Paris, largely to take account of the conditions, bolstering the scrum with Exeter prop Tomas Francis, Wasps lock Will Rowlands and debutant Cardiff flanker Shane Lewis-hughes. The Scots have made similar weatheroriented modifications, with Blade Thomson starting at No 8 and Jonny Gray coming into the second row.
In such conditions, a Scotland pack who scored three line- out drive tries last week will need to achieve parity in an attritional forward tussle, the back three will have to survive the inevitable aerial bombardment, and Russell will need to show authoritative game management. The Scotland fly-half will dispense with the long miss-passes and use his boot to dictate proceedings, with his captain convinced a standoff who honed his craft in rainsoaked Glasgow can do so.
“We have touched on the weather conditions all week,” said Hogg, who was superb as Exeter won the Premiership emiership final against Wasps in lashing shing rain last week. “We all know fine ne well when it is on to play and when hen to get rid of the ball and defend. fend. Finn has been at the forefront refront of that. He has a terrific fic kicking game and his game me management is right up there ere with the best in the world. orld. Hopefully he can put us in the right areas and make sure re we are constantly going ing forward.”
For Hogg, just having Russell ussell back could be enough ough of a fillip for Scotland nd to break their Welsh hoodoo. oodoo. The Scotland captain ptain negotiated t he e rapprochement ent between Russell ussell and his coach, ach, Gregor Townsend, ownsend, precisely sely because he believes lieves that Russell could be the difference fference between success and d failure.
““I’m I’m a huge fan of the way ay that Finn plays rugby, gby, I love it, just l ove ve i t,” Hogg said. “You’ve You’ve just got to give that at guy the licence to express press himself. He’s been outstanding utstanding for Racing, so it’s s been great to have him back. ack. He really drives standards, andards, drives us around the e field and hopefully he can n drive us to a win.”
If so, it has been a long ng time coming.