Will Donald Trump defy the odds?

Four years ago, Donald Trump confounded the pollsters and general expectations by winning the US presidency. Will he do the same in today’s election? Unlike in 2016, few pundits are making any predictions. Back then, while Hillary Clinton was not considered the ideal candidate for the Democratic Party, she was well ahead in the polls and the received wisdom among opinion formers was that the country would not entrust its fate to a maverick blowhard. But, as with their equivalents in the UK in the Brexit referendum a few months earlier, all their assumptions were wrong. They imagined the rest of the country must think as they did.

Mr Trump won because he set himself up against this, as the anti-politician, the Ordinary Joe voter fed up with being promised much that was never delivered. The fact that he was a billionaire businessman did not seem to damage this constructed persona. His whole campaign was based on being the outsider who would give the powers-that-be a bloody nose; and so he did.

His difficulty now is that he is the establishment yet is still seeking to define himself against the administration that he has run for four years. Once again the polls suggest a victory for his opponent with a record turnout, and yet they have narrowed dramatically in recent days in the swing states where Mr Trump won last time. Like Mrs Clinton, who won a majority of the electorate, Joe Biden may pile up support in Trump-hating areas like California or New York but a few thousand voters in the Mid-west and Florida hold the key to the White House.

From a British point of view, a Biden presidency would be problematic, given his hostility to Brexit and the likelihood that the UK would find it more difficult to secure a free-trade deal with America. But while he remains the favourite, his victory is by no means certain.

The pandemic has dominated the election – calling Mr Trump’s handling of the crisis into question and limiting the opportunities for campaigning. The president, after recovering from Covid, has been as energetic as ever, visiting dozens of key states, while Mr Biden has for the most part stayed in the shadows. Mr Trump’s message is that the country does not have to close down because of the virus. His defiance has been denounced as reckless, but it may resonate with voters who do not wish to cower in their homes.