The PM and Biden have much in common
Boris Johnson will surely be quietly pleased if the former vice president enters the White House
If Joe Biden finds himself in the Oval Office in January, he is expected to re-extend the hand of friendship to Europe which Donald Trump deliberately rescinded. There is plenty of rebuilding to do, redefining relationships that became dominated by antagonism these past four years. The concern, however, is that Biden’s friendliness will stop short of the UK.
It is well established that the former vice president is not impressed with Britain’s decision to leave the EU, influenced by the pride he feels in his Irish roots. This difference of opinion came to a head when Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, asserted that there would be no US-UK free trade deal if Britain did anything – from her party’s perspective – to undermine the Good Friday Agreement.
It would be understandable, therefore, if the Prime Minister was wary of a Biden victory. Yet I suspect that if Boris Johnson finds himself sending his warmest regards to Biden on his new job, he will wholeheartedly mean it. For Johnson, the former vice president will be a friend to his policy agenda, during the pandemic and beyond.
First, on coronavirus. Pushback on the PM’S approach to Covid started in Parliament this week when 34 MPS voted against England’s second lockdown. This resistance is only set to grow, especially if restrictions define 2021 as they have 2020. Trump’s anti-lockdown position has been uncomfortable for other Western leaders, especially given that it appears to be quite popular. Biden, however, is pandemic orthodoxy personified. It is not at all obvious that the Democrat’s call for national measures to get the virus under control would succeed, or that a national approach is the right one – America’s states have more power to resist commands from the centre. But a shift in attitude from the White House would provide further cover for the PM as he navigates increasingly icy territory on the home front.
And once the crisis abates, the pair are likely to find significantly more common ground than Johnson ever did with Trump, however warm the rhetoric has been. For example, both leaders have incentives to agree trade deals around the world: Biden as a counter to Trump’s protectionism, and Johnson to reap the benefits of Brexit. If both the US and UK were to sign up to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-pacific Partnership – which the US was going to join until Trump pulled the plug – they would effectively establish a trade agreement between themselves, without the headaches inherent in pursuing a bilateral one.
The jewel in the crown, however, would be striking a new climate accord at COP 26 next year. Hosted in Glasgow, Johnson has a chance to look like the global leader of the world’s pursuit of a greener planet. But as the Paris Climate Agreement proved, the optics mean little if the world’s super power doesn’t opt in. The Prime Minister has a much better shot at securing America’s signature if it’s Biden who’s signing the deal.
Finally, there is the not at all minor matter of personality. The Prime Minister has always tried to keep an arm’s distance between himself and Trump, wary of baseless accusations that he is “Britain’s Trump”. The Government has been notably squeamish whenever Trump has declared his love for Britain and Brexit. But it is hard to imagine Biden, an uncontroversial character in Western public opinion, causing a media storm because of some inappropriate remark on a visit to the UK. By reputation and record, he is a consensus-builder.
It is always jarring when people compare the UK’S Conservative Party to the Republicans, or Labour to the Democrats, not least because America’s parties are substantially further to the Right than their UK counterparts. There’s also precedent for a Tory and Democrat bond, displayed in the relationship between Harold Macmillan and John F Kennedy, who not only navigated escalating international tensions together, but treated each other as confidants.
In truth, Biden and Johnson’s governments would find far more in common than some admit, from what they consider to be the role of the state should be to their views on international cooperation, including the importance of Nato. But even if they don’t always agree, at the very least, their personal relationship is likely to be genuinely friendly.