No chance of radical reforms without the backing of the Senate

How do you solve a problem like the Senate? That is a quandary the Biden campaign will be mulling over in the coming weeks. It is hard to over-exaggerate just how much is riding on the two remaining Senate seat races in Georgia which will decide the balance of power and thus the fate of many of Joe Biden’s policies. On the current maths the Democrats have 48 seats and the Republicans have 50. Win both of those so-called “run-off ” races in Georgia come January and the Democrats are just about over the line. In tied votes in the US Senate, the deciding vote is cast by the vice president, soon to be Kamala Harris.

Mr Biden can pass some laws in that case without Republican votes. But if they fall short – and many in Washington DC suspect that is the most likely outcome – the Republicans keep their majority. And that means Mitch Mcconnell remains as Senate leader.

If you want an example of the ruthlessness with which Mr Mcconnell wields his political power, cast your mind back to earlier this autumn. A Supreme Court seat opened up. Republicans, who had used their Senate majority to prevent Barack Obama filling a seat for almost a full year ahead of the 2016 election, had a choice. Should they stick to their previous warnings against putting a judge on America’s highest court so soon before an election, or not?

They picked the latter. Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Sept 18. By Oct 26 a successor, Amy Coney Barrett, had been selected, grilled and confirmed by the Senate. It was one of the quickest Supreme Court confirmation processes in recent times, for a nominee who faces real opposition. Mr Mcconnell got his victory.

Now replace a Supreme Court seat with Mr Biden’s policy agenda. His $2 trillion plan to tackle climate change. His vow to overturn Mr Trump’s £1.5 trillion tax cut. His proposal to offer every American a government-funded “public option” for healthcare. You could keep going – voter rights changes, police reforms, immigration changes.

Many of these policies saw Left-wing leaders like Bernie Sanders arguing that Mr Biden would be the most progressive president since Franklin D Roosevelt. If the Republicans hold the Senate, that almost certainly is not going to happen. Every piece of legislation Mr Biden will hope to pass will need at least one Republican vote, perhaps many more.

And even if the Senate is split 50-50, that still leaves no margin at all for rebellion. The Democrats can afford no rebels on any piece of legislation. The next two years until the 2022 midterm elections will be an endless cycle of legislative juggling, trying to piece together a majority for a bill in a split Senate. Mr Mcconnell would also hold sway over Mr Biden’s cabinet. Each nominee for a cabinet post must undergo Senate hearings and then be approved by the body.

This does not kill Mr Biden’s agenda. He can pass executive orders, moves by a president that can be carried out unilaterally and have legal weight.

He has much freedom on foreign policy.

But this time last week Democrats dreamed of a big Senate majority to vastly reshape America, and those dreams are gone.

Rather than any kind of radical reformer, Mr Biden in his early years in office looks set to be a presidential palate cleanser, washing away the division of the Trump term but struggling to make sweeping legislative change.