Hundreds feared dead after Ethiopia’s aerial assault on defiant region

Conflict between federal government and Tigray leaders could lead to ‘Balkanisation’ of nation

HUNDREDS are feared to have been killed amid heavy fighting and fighter jet air strikes in northern Ethiopia, as Africa’s second most populous nation lurches towards full-scale civil war.

An Ethiopian military official said yesterday that the air force was “pounding targets with precision” as the federal government continued its invasion of the defiant northern region of Tigray.

The Tigray government confirmed the federal government’s aerial assault saying that the air force had carried out more than 10 attacks so far. It said it had shot down one fighter jet, but a federal government general denied the claim.

Last week, Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning prime minister launched an invasion of the semi-autonomous Tigray region, which borders Eritrea and Sudan, prompting alarm amongst international observers.

Analysts fear that a protracted conflict in Tigray could lead to the “Balkanisation” of the vast nation into different ethnic regions, and risk destabilising swathes of the Horn of Africa.

The escalation came after months of bellicose rhetoric between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government in Addis Ababa and Tigray’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

The federal government claims it is trying to liberate the Tigray region from the TPLF and that the Tigrayan leaders are trying to destabilise the government and incite violence amongst the country’s array of ethnicities.

The TPLF c o mmands a well equipped, battle-hardened force, while the Ethiopian federal military is one of the most powerful on the continent. All eyes are now on the federal army’s Northern Command, which is based in Tigray and comprises anywhere from 40 to 70 per cent of the country’s military. The Northern Command has strong ties to the TPLF. If parts of the Command sides with Tigray against the federal government, it would be catastrophic for Addis Ababa and most probably lead to horrendous bloodshed.

Dino Mahtani, deputy Africa director of the International Crisis Group, said: “A prolonged conflict could see Ethiopia violently unravel. The conflict with Tigray is just one prong of a multidimensional crisis pitting some of the country’s different ethnic constituencies against each other or against the federal government.”

There are reports of hundreds of influential Tigrayans being arrested in the capital and a communications blackout in Tigray makes reports difficult to verify. However, in an effort to downplay international alarm, Mr Ahmed wrote in a statement yesterday: “Concerns that Ethiopia will descend into chaos are unfounded, and a result of not understanding our context deeply.”