A glimmer of hope in the Covid gloom

At last some good news has penetrated the gloom of the Covid pandemic. Such was the global relief at the prospect of an imminent vaccine that stock markets did not rally so much as soar. Some shares, including those in airlines and travel companies, jumped by up to 40 per cent within minutes of Pfizer’s announcement of its interim test results.

However, the desperation to believe that the cavalry really was coming over the hill may have led to premature celebrations. The vaccine is said to be 90 per cent effective based on trials involving 44,000 people from six countries. But while it may stop infection, it is not clear whether it would produce the vaunted “herd immunity” needed to protect the majority of the population.

There is, moreover, the question of producing the vaccine to the required scale. It will not be ready for widespread distribution until the spring, which means another six months at least under restrictions. The UK has ordered 40 million, enough for 20 million people as two doses are needed. The first will go to front-line health workers and the vulnerable elderly who might end up in hospital and overwhelm the system. Most people under 60, as is the case with flu, will not get the vaccine as they are only affected mildly by Covid. Young children should not need it at all.

But a potential problem is storage. The vaccine needs to be kept at a temperature below -70C which means it cannot be easily transported. People will have to go to central vaccine centres and that raises a serious logistical issue of how it is to be administered to infirm older people.

Furthermore, as Boris Johnson said at his No 10 news conference, the full safety data is not yet available and these are “very, very early days”. But the UK must not be left behind by excessive caution or regulatory procrastination.

If effective, this will be the fastest development of any vaccine in history. Usually they take 10 years to come to fruition but this one has emerged in just 10 months. Dr Albert Bourla, the Pfizer chairman, called the breakthrough “a great day for science and humanity”. It is to be hoped he has not jumped the gun.

Disappointment would be hugely damaging to global confidence just as countries in Europe and elsewhere are imposing new lockdowns. These will seem less onerous if there is a certain knowledge that it could all be over soon.