Hospital referrals down a third in lockdown

NHS must plan for spike in demand with ‘rising tide’ of need as appointments fall by 4.7 million, experts say

THE number of people referred to hospital this year has fallen by a third, with almost f i ve million f ewer people referred for cataract, hip and knee operations and other types of surgery.

Experts warned of a “rising tide of unmet need” with millions of people left in pain, or with worsening eyesight, because they had not received the care they needed as lockdown set in.

The analysis by the Health Foundation shows there were 4.7 million fewer people referred for routine hospital care between January and August 2020, compared with the same period last year.

The charity said the figures suggest that the number referred for consultant-led routine hospital care has fallen by 34 per cent compared with last year.

Its experts said the figures reflected a reluctance among some patients to seek care, while GPS were unable to refer cases to some services which were suspended during lockdown.

They said the NHS would need to plan for a major spike in demand, on top of the 4.2 million already on waiting lists.

Tim Gardner, one of the report’s authors, said: “While the NHS is rightly focused on the urgent task of fighting Covid-19, there is, meanwhile, a rising tide of unmet need which will have a significant impact on people’s health if a sustainable solution is not found.

“The NHS made significant progress towards fully reopening services after the first peak of the pandemic, but there is still a potentially huge hidden backlog, as the health service is undertaking far fewer routine procedures compared to last year.”

The senior policy fellow at the foundation said “radical interventions” would be needed to avoid prolonged delays for those who have not even been put on waiting lists. The charity called for more use of the independent sector, with the creation of dedicated diagnostic hubs and surgery centres.

Previous research has suggested that Britain’s Covid-19 crisis could lead to an extra 35,000 cancer deaths a year. Medics have raised concerns that lack of screening, late diagnosis and delayed access to life-saving treatment during the pandemic will mean extra deaths for many years to come. Last week, an Institute for Fiscal Studies report found one in six people over the age of 50 had hospital treatment cancelled during the pandemic. The figures show that between January and August of this year the numbers referred for trauma and orthopaedic appointments – such as hip and knee operations – fell by 42 per cent, a drop of more than 622,000 patients.

Meanwhile, the numbers sent for ophthalmology appointments, such as cataract surgery, fell by 41 per cent, representing more than 531,000 fewer cases.

Prof Neil Mortensen, the president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said: “People understand that this year it’s been very hard to stop waiting lists from getting longer.

“But now, with expanded testing capacity and a vaccine looking imminent, we cannot accept that the ‘new normal’ means waiting a year for an operation.”

Tracey Loftis, the head of policy and public affairs at Versus Arthritis, said those waiting for “life-changing surgery” such as hip and knee operations were being left in excruciating pain even before joining the waiting list.

An NHS spokesman said: “At the height of the first peak, some people chose to postpone care, but the latest figures show that hospitals are carrying out more than a million routine appointments and operations every week and t he NHS message to t he public has always been clear – do not delay, help us to help you by coming forward for care.

“Keeping the virus under control is key to being able to continue all routine care, so it is vital that everyone plays their part by following the guidance.”