Pre-lockdown rush to pub blamed for Covid spike

‘Scenes like Christmas Eve’ in bars and restaurants helped create highest jump on record, experts suggest

COVID-19 cases have risen by almost 50 per cent in just one day, with experts warning that the spike appears to have been fuelled by a rush to pubs and restaurants ahead of lockdown. More than 33,000 cases were recorded in the UK yesterday – the highest figure yet and a jump of more than 10,000 in one day.

Scientists warned that the sudden spike was likely to reflect increased socialising before lockdown, as people took their last chance for a night out.

One said that “scenes like Christmas Eve” in pubs and high streets ahead of last week’s restrictions were the result of an “ill-thought through” lockdown which may have increased transmissions. The figures published yesterday show another 33,470 cases of Covid-19 reported in the UK in the most recent 24-hour period, up from 22,950 the day before, and an average of 22,524 in the previous week.

Yesterday’s figure is the highest on record, although during the first wave there was far less testing.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-based Medicine at Oxford University, said: “These figures are going through the roof, and it’s not really surprising when we saw scenes like Christmas Eve last week before we went into lockdown. The problem is when these policies are drawn up the Government assumes everyone will behave the same way, and they just don’t take account of the fact that many people saw it as a last chance to get out. We had some quite crazy scenes last week, with pubs and restaurants full.”

Experts raised fears that the trend could continue in coming days, as there was typically a five-day lag between i nfection and symptoms showing, and some days more to secure a test and get its results. The jump could also mean that extra socialising last week will continue to have a knock-on effect despite lockdown, as transmissions continue within households and workplaces.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director at Public Health England, said: “The majority of cases reported today were from tests carried out on Nov 9 and 10, which includes infections acquired in the days leading up to new measures on Nov 5.”

Prof Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that while one day’s data were hard to judge, socialising ahead of lockdown may well have contributed to the spike.

He said: “If cases remain this high for another day or so then it will pretty much be down to people having more social contacts – partying before lockdown.”

Asked if the strange “kink” in the case rate could be caused by people rushing to the pub ahead of a national lockdown, Steven Riley, professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics at Imperial, said: “Yes it could be, partly.”