Vote Leave has fallen, but what will fill the power vacuum in No 10?
This isn’t about one spin doctor. The fight is now on to decide the shape of government after Brexit
If America’s politics can seem hard to follow, spare a thought for anyone trying to understand Britain’s. No 10 is currently in a state of civil war, with resignations being threatened and tendered. On one side we have Dominic Cummings, architect of the Government’s Brexit strategy and much else besides. On the other: Carrie Symonds, the Prime Minister’s fiancée. Meanwhile, the country is in lockdown and weeks away from a Brexit deadline. It’s a cross between a Hammer Horror movie and a Carry On film – yet in this melee, the future of government is being decided.
The resignation of Lee Cain as the PM’S spokesman will mark the first time most people had heard of him. But this isn’t really about him, or any one man. It’s about where power lies, how Britain is governed and the future of the Vote Leave team that has – in effect – run the Government since Boris Johnson begged Cummings to work for him as chief adviser. If Cain has fallen, it suggests the Prime Minister is moving to a new system. The fight is now on to decide the shape of government after Brexit.
Until now, Cummings had had undiluted power over the No 10 machine. That was his condition for taking the job. He has a very distinct modus operandi: strict discipline, tight focus and no toleration of dissent.
When he joined, the Tories faced obliteration. They badly needed focus, drive and miracles – which Cummings had a track record of delivering. And he did so again: a Brexit deal was followed by an 80-strong Tory majority. The Cabinet may not relish being given orders by the Vote Leave team that Cummings brought to No 10 with him. But they stomach it – and tell themselves that, after next month’s Brexit deal, things will change.
A lot of people have been thinking about this new post-brexit era – and this is where Ms Symonds comes in. As a former Tory spin chief, she has her own views on a good communications strategy, and a formidable contacts book.
She’s also a keen environmentalist and No 10 officials suspect this explains why the Prime Minister has a sudden interest in building zeroemission jumbo jets and hydrogenfuelled cars. Rumours started to circulate around Whitehall that she regarded Cummings and the Brexit boys as too abrasive and ideological and that she wanted a regime change. Starting with the departure of Cain.
The Prime Minister famously enjoys playing people off against each other – a trait he had suppressed but which has, of late, returned. When he hired Allegra Stratton as his new on-air spokesman – against Cain’s wishes – Cain saw, in the appointment, the hand of Ms Symonds. When Cain then offered to resign last Friday, the Prime Minister panicked and offered to make him chief of staff. Quite an offer, but to give Cain this long-vacant role was seen by others as a sign that the Vote Leave team was not about to be disbanded, but here to stay. Cue outrage – and resignation.
But by now, it is pretty clear that the Vote Leave model of government – whatever its merits in Brexit negotiation – is failing. Its signature theme had been discipline and focus. We now see psychodrama and bedlam. The handling of the pandemic has shown multiple, epic failures, from the £12 billion test-and-trace debacle to the new PPE mountain (it’s now stockpiled so high that it may well be burned). When the Prime Minister was bounced into lockdown, on the strength of figures that fell apart on further examination, he will have had cause to conclude that change was needed.
Appointing a chief of staff makes sense – if nothing else, to stop things falling through the cracks. The school dinners fiasco, for example, happened because no one could work out which government department should be responsible for feeding children outside of term-time. Cummings fought hard to keep Cain in the chief of staff role. But he has now lost his fight, very publicly, in a way that raises questions about how long he’ll hang around for after the Brexit deal is done.
The Tories who have always loathed Dominic Cummings know that they had best be careful what they wish for. As one puts it: “The only thing worse than Boris with Dom is Boris without Dom.” Johnson is no micro-manager and needs someone with incredible work ethic and ability. He’d like his No 10 to run as smoothly as Rishi Sunak’s Treasury – and would certainly like his team to include Cummings. But not necessarily be run by Cummings. The era of Vote Leave dominance, in other words, is over. Cain’s departure marks this.
There is only one plausible alternative: to bring back Cabinet government. This means appointing, trusting and empowering decent secretaries of state – which is the only way the British model will work. Attempts to suck power to the centre always fail: you end up with U-turns and resignations. This means restoring the independence of the Treasury and having power centres in each government department. A chief of staff is very important – but the job of government is too big for any one person.
The Prime Minister has done this before. His time as London Mayor started badly, but after a while he hired a long line of deputy mayors. When he did my job, editing The Spectator, he was no desk slave. Instead, he appointed a brilliant, diverse group of journalists in whom he inspired loyalty and dedication.
His allies say that this – the power of appointment and delegation – is Johnson’s leadership skill. If he applies it in the traditional way, and fills his Cabinet with competent people he genuinely trusts, then his accidentprone Government might recover.
In the meantime there’s a deal with the European Union to be agreed, a pandemic to be handled, a potential vaccine to be distributed and a recession to navigate. This is the time for relentless focus on the job in hand – not trying to resolve office feuds.
But the transition has started, now, and will likely last for a while. This leaves Britain between two forms of government: the old is now on the way out, and the new has yet to arrive. It’s a dangerous vacuum, at a dangerous time.