R rate could fall below 1 within a fortnight

With the increase in cases slowing, social distancing measures may be loosened over the festive period

CHRISTMAS could still be saved as government scientists believe the R rate will soon be below one, allowing for “limited loosening” of social distancing over the festive period. The latest estimate f rom t he Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) suggests the reproduction number is now between one and 1.2, and may even be below one in some areas.

Surveillance figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also show the rate of increase is slowing, with cases rising just 5.7 per cent in the week up to Nov 6, compared with around 30 per cent in October.

Katherine Kent, co-head of analysis for the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: “In general, across the UK we are seeing slower increases in the number of people with Covid-19.”

Cases are now doubling every 28 to 63 days, compared with every 14 days at the end of October.

A paper released by Sage yesterday, setting out “scenarios for the coming months”, shows that when the pandemic becomes “low and controlled” there will be “greater potential for loosening of social distancing rules for a limited period of time” at Christmas.

Government scientists believe the country is currently in a “high and controlled” state but could soon move into the lower category, allowing for relaxation of some ongoing restrictions over the festive period.

One source close to the Government said: “There’s no doubt things are coming down. The number of new cases is around 55,000 so that’s pretty flat and there is quite a long doubling time now … so it’s flattened off.

“The Government obviously has got an ambition to try to be able to relax a bit over Christmas. At the moment we’re probably ‘high and controlled’ but you would hope with the measures in place now, it would be coming down.”

The optimistic outlook comes in spite of a rise in cases which saw infections hit more than 33,000 on Thursday – the highest figure on record, and a jump of more than 10,000 in one day. However, both the King’s College symptom tracker app and Imperial’s React surveillance study show that case rates are starting to slow.

King’s College said the R rate is now below one in Britain – at 0.9 – with new daily symptomatic cases falling from around 42,000 to 36,000 last week.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College, believes cases peaked at the end of October, although there is likely to be a lag between infections and test results.

A Government source said that the surveillance data were likely to be more accurate than the daily testing figure, but warned that people would need to maintain social distancing once lockdown was eased to avoid more measures being imposed over the festive season.