A real Tory for London? It’ll never catch on
In theory, Shaun Bailey is exactly the type of Tory who should be the future of the “Red Wall” Conservative Party. He’s working class – with the accent – but true blue; he spent 20 years as a charity worker focused on youth crime and gangs, but is tough on crime; he’s descended from a Windrush Second World War veteran, but is hawkish on immigration; he’s black, but sceptical of the Black Lives Matter movement; and he can use the word “bruv” without sounding ridiculous. Yet as the Conservative candidate for London mayor, Mr Bailey is struggling.
His main problem is that no one knows who he is. To be fair, this is not entirely his fault. London’s previous three mayors have all had high-profile careers before winning office – Sadiq Khan, the incompetent incumbent, was previously in the Cabinet as transport secretary. But Mr Bailey has failed to break through.
Thanks to Covid delaying the mayoral elections, he has been given an extra year to make his mark. In public polls he is 20 points behind Mr Khan, though an internal Tory poll has reportedly put the gap at only seven points. He gave an interview to GQ this week in which he was asked: “What did you
Trailing: Shaun Bailey, above, the Tory mayoral candidate
think about Margaret Thatcher as a teenager?” His prompt response: “I didn’t.” How’s that for a blast of normality?
Alas, once you lure him off his main issue – crime – his passion and deep personal knowledge give way to half-baked garble. On housing, he suggests that the mayor’s office itself start building houses, but offers little reason why it would have more success than anyone else. It’s difficult to pin down anything resembling a comprehensive transport or economic revival policy in a city hamstrung by lockdowns. But crime policy on its own won’t win a London election today, especially when its worst effects are concentrated in pro-labour areas.
The irony is that Mr Bailey’s politics are most appealing to voters outside the cosmopolitan capital he is trying to win. He’s a church-going social conservative with a strong interest in fixing the problems of disaffected communities and seemingly little interest in much else. It’s his misfortune that he is standing in a city where turning those values into Tory votes is an uphill battle.