Nick Timothy

The battle that will define the PM and the future of his party

Amid all the confusion sown by briefing and counter-briefing, gossip and smears, the Tories face a remarkably simple strategic choice. Do they want to become the party whose MPS are respectable enough to win back invitations to dinner parties in Islington and Notting Hill? Or make themselves the party of provincial normality – dependable enough to champion the values and interests of ordinary working people?

This choice – between becoming the Respectables or the Dependables – lies at the heart of the struggle we will witness in the coming weeks and months. It will determine not only Boris Johnson’s premiership, but the future of the Conservative Party and the shape of British politics for years to come. It will be a ferocious fight.

For much of recent history the Respectables had things their way. They enjoyed in David Cameron a leader who prioritised fighting climate change, reducing public spending, and keeping Britain inside the European Union. With their approval, he sought and won an electoral coalition based on his liberal and affluent perspective. Until he lost the referendum that led to Brexit, Cameron had made conservatism acceptable again: prosperous liberals could vote in their economic self-interest reassured that the Tories were led by a man with his own wind turbine.

Yet the referendum killed Cameron’s coalition of voters and led to the usurpation of the posh and privileged by the plain and provincial. The elections of 2017 and 2019 saw the departure of leading Respectables, such as George Osborne and Amber Rudd, the establishment of a new coalition of Tory voters, and the arrival in Parliament of dozens of new Dependables. With high-income constituencies like Winchester now marginals, the party holds seats – often with big majorities

– in Brexit-supporting places like Middlesbrough and Walsall.

Now, with Dominic Cummings gone, the Respectables want their party (as they think of it) back. They say they want to “soften” the Government’s image, and imagine Boris Johnson governing as a reincarnated Cameron with messier hair and better jokes. They want to avoid the culture war, accepting instead of resisting extreme identity politics – from transgenderism to theories of structural racism – that divide society and destroy trust and reciprocity. And they recommend a new political emphasis, not on jobs or financial security for ordinary families but on climate change and other issues that gnaw at the consciences of the high-consuming and socially self-segregating rich.

Complicating matters is the fact that the choice before the Tories is not simply between the status quo and the preferred agenda of the Respectables. It is between two very different futures. For to become the

Dependables, to deliver for the party’s new voters, the Government will need to be far bolder than it has been hitherto in delivering for them.

A year on from giving Boris Johnson his majority, voters in constituencies like Dudley and Workington have little, so far, to show for it. Yes, Britain will soon be out of the transition phase as we leave the European Union. And yes, as Covid struck the economy, Rishi Sunak’s business support and furlough schemes have kept companies and families afloat.

But the much-vaunted pointsbased immigration system will almost certainly fail to reduce the number of people coming to Britain. There is little sign of the new industrial strategy that will bring growth to the regions, no trace of the decentralisation proposals to put power in the hands of local communities, and no confidence that we will see the decisive shift needed to fund the technical education and training programmes the country so badly needs.

And things will get tougher still. A year ago, it was possible to imagine the Tories borrowing more to fund regional infrastructure spending. It was possible even to imagine them funding the increases in day-to-day spending made necessary by the promise to “level up” the country. But now Covid has blown a hole in the public finances, that intent is in doubt.

It was always the case that the durability of the new coalition of Tory support would be tested not during periods of political peace but when hard choices had to be made. And sure enough, ministers and advisers have been arguing for some time about whether Covid’s fiscal impact means they must retreat from the promises they made to their new voters. This would be a terrible mistake.

If Boris Johnson wants to govern for the whole country – the true meaning, incidentally, of the One Nation tradition – he has to stick with the provinces. And if he wants his electoral coalition to hold together, he needs to show – now more than ever, when the chips are down – that he puts ordinary working families with modest means first. If that later requires asking more of the privileged and the prosperous, then so be it, and in fact so much the better, because it will show at the toughest moments the Prime Minister refused to retreat to a Tory comfort zone.

Even if the Respectables fail to drag the Government all the way back to such a zone, the danger is that they bring about a confused and contradictory halfway house. It is not difficult to imagine the Tories telling the country that certain spending on infrastructure and services is unaffordable, for example, while keeping, against the wishes of the Chancellor, the international aid target. It is just as easy to imagine ministers making promises to keep a lid on the cost of living and to revive British industry, while pursuing climate change policies that make both family and industrial energy costs unaffordable.

And does anybody really believe that for the prosperous and liberal voters motivated by issues like international aid, the Conservatives are likely – after Brexit and the rejuvenation of Labour under Sir Keir Starmer – to become the Respectables? No. The Tories’ surest route to future success is to become the Dependables. If you do not wish to take my word for it, imagine what Keir Starmer would prefer: a Tory party that holds the old Red Wall is a party he cannot defeat.