‘Killer Christmas’ claims alarming ministers
Suggestions of January lockdown ‘is not policy’ after PHE warning of ‘five days of pain for one of gain’
MINISTERS are at odds with scientists over festive restrictions, amid warnings a “merry Christmas could mean burying your relatives in January”.
The Daily Telegraph understands that Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, was not consulted on the “five to one” modelling briefed by Public Health England which provoked anger across
Whitehall. Treasury officials were also understood to be concerned yesterday over fears that the Government’s plans for a new local lockdown would be released before next Wednesday’s Comprehensive Spending Review.
It comes after Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’S medical adviser, told a Downing Street briefing that “close to normal” celebrations would require tough restrictions after the festive period.
She originally said that two days of extra restrictions would be needed for every day of Christmas cheer, but PHE’S press office later clarified that it would mean five days of tighter measures.
The “five days of pain for one day of gain” pronouncement led to speculation that relaxing rules over Christmas would mean spending most of January in lockdown.
However, a Department of Health source said: “Preliminary Sage modelling should not be taken as guidance for possible decisions not taken yet.”
Whitehall sources said ministers had been taken aback by Dr Hopkins’s comments and by PHE’S later correction.
One source said: “It definitely shouldn’t be read as meaning that’s where things are going.”
Meanwhile, Treasury chiefs are understood to be concerned that the post Dec 2 plan l ooks s et to be announced before the Comprehensive Spending Review and accompanying economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR is on course to follow the Bank of England in predicting the economy will contract close to 11 per cent in 2020, the worst annual performance for 300 years.
Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is said to be preparing to publish what allies describe as a “scary” outlook for the economy, containing the largest downgrade in economic performance and the public finances since the Second World War. “It seems odd not to want to wait for the economic impact of the measures before deciding what the next measures should be,” said one insider.
It comes amid warnings from scientists that enjoying a fulsome Christmas could have dire consequences.
Dr Gabriel Scully, a professor of public health at Bristol University, said that there would be “no point in having a very merry Christmas and then burying friends and relations in January and February”. Adding to fears, Dr Katherine Henderson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, suggested that Britain could “regret a Christmas season that’s given granny Covid for Christmas”.
Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London, said that “we’re putting far too much emphasis on a near-normal Christmas”, which would add “fuel to the fire” of infections.
Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, did not want to become “the Grinch that stole Christmas” but said that protecting the NHS would take priority.