Britain can lead in the new age of warfare

Investments in cyber build on our strengths and will allow us to adapt to the changing nature of conflict

For those of us fearing the worst for defence in the era of Covid, the announcement of a significant increase in spending is a triumph for Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, who has fought the Mod’s corner with articulate persistence. It is true that £24.1 billion of extra funding over the next four years is not exactly a “splurge”, but it will allow defence to plan for the future without the depressing cheese-paring or the never-ending financial Sword of Damocles that has hung over its head over recent decades.

Most attention has been fixed on the traditional spending areas. The Navy has done well, and deservedly so, considering the extent to which it has been downgraded. That is good for force projection and good for Global Britain, not only symbolically but also because so much of our trade passes through increasingly contested waters in the Indo-pacific. A bigger Royal Navy will enable the UK to lead the defence of the North Sea against any potential Russian threat, too. And the package sends an important message to Joe Biden that the UK will continue to be a partner with America, playing an active global role.

However, the nature of conflict is changing. We have seen Russia invent new forms of state aggression: so-called hybrid or full-spectrum warfare, including a range of integrated activities, from espionage, conventional warfare and disinformation campaigns to the manipulation of Western democratic elections. In Nagorno-karabakh, meanwhile, we have seen how Azerbaijan’s use of inexpensive Turkish drones has decimated expensive Armenian equipment such as tanks and armoured vehicles, changing the balance of power on the battlefield.

These developments pose an obvious dilemma for democratic nations, in that conventional military capabilities alone are insufficient in addressing them. We cannot employ the sinister techniques of authoritarian states, but we have to be able to respond to them.

That is why the other set of announcements yesterday is arguably even more important. Most significantly, a new cyber force will be launched, led by GCHQ and the MOD. With one of the strongest tech bases in the world, with a tradition of highly creative problem-solving among our Armed Forces at the operational and tactical level, and with a near unique cyber capability in GCHQ, we are well-placed to punch above our weight in this area. With its own attack capability, the centre will act as a deterrent against hostile states and groups, and it should increase our understanding of the shadowy world of full-spectrum conflict, too.

This will be important geopolitically. We are not going to be able to compete with America’s National Security Agency. But as we have already seen in co-operation between GCHQ and the NSA, investing in this area can bolster traditional alliances. It will allow the UK to be the leading power in any joint work we do with allies other than the United States, from Australia to our European partners. A new centre dedicated to artificial intelligence, meanwhile, should improve our ability to identify and assess threats. The creation of a space command reflects the role that space is expected to play in modern warfare.

We need a note of realism. The amounts of money defence will have will be modest compared with those of the private sector in AI and big data. But used intelligently, it should enable the UK to work with cutting-edge firms to develop a competitive advantage – all the more reason why we need robust protection for firms in sensitive hi-tech areas from hostile states.

We also need a sense of proportion. There will be two superpowers in the coming decades, the US and China. But beneath those two continental powers, the UK has the potential to remain one of the few great nations which also has global reach in the projection of force and its ability to adapt to the changing nature of conflict.

Military power is only one part of a spectrum of state tools. Having armed forces confident to plan for the future is only one element of the UK’S foreign policy. But yesterday’s announcements will enable defence to look to the future with something other than trepidation: a step change from recent years.

follow Bob Seely on Twitter @Iowbobseely; read more at telegraph.co.uk/ opinion