We can’t wait for a vaccine to lift the rules

Safeguarding the nation’s health is a solemn duty of government. There is no silver bullet for Covid and I sympathise with the unenviable decisions facing the Prime Minister. But as we wait with trepidation to find out what tier we all fall into, more than a health crisis, we are facing a socioeconomic one. We have the capacity for the health challenge. We have vacant hospital beds and Covid treatment has improved. Testing has also improved and, we are told, will be rapidly expanded.

But, notwithstanding yesterday’s announcements, it remains unclear how long restrictions will last. Without the promised surge in testing, history could repeat itself with areas sliding into Tier 3 – effectively an economic shutdown by another name. Long after the health crisis has been resolved, the socio-economic crisis of job losses, value destruction and poverty could remain for decades. Yet seemingly no modelling is done on the impact of these measures on livelihoods, jobs and mental health. We see catastrophic worst-case scenarios modelled for the virus, but not for the unfolding social and economic catastrophe.

You don’t need complex modelling to grasp the wasteland that awaits. Just take a walk through the high streets of England. Last week I walked down New Bond Street. Seasonal lights aside, it told a story of misery that would make even Scrooge crave some Christmas cheer. Shops vacant, proud new developments empty of tenants. And if that’s New Bond Street, imagine the high streets of middle England. After months of restrictions, “levelling up” must feel more like an empty slogan. Instead, rescue and salvage come to mind.

The emergence of vaccines offers much needed optimism. But by the time the vaccine can be rolled out, will we have a society and economy intact and capable of effective recovery?

Waiting for mass vaccinations while persisting with overbearing restrictions is not a viable strategy, nor a popular one. We are told the public support restrictions. My research suggests a different story. Focus groups and polling show that as the economic impact becomes apparent, support for them dramatically diminishes. Just before the November lockdown, people were asked about their attitudes to Tier 3 measures in their area. When asked if they supported them “if these measures successfully slowed the spread of the virus”, 77 per cent said they did. Yet when asked if they supported such measures if the economic impact would lead to significant job losses, support dropped to 25 per cent – and only 16 per cent if they would lose their job.

With the furlough scheme in place, 61 per cent supported restrictions, falling to 23 per cent without it. If the economic damage meant there was less money to spend on public services like the NHS, support fell to 22 per cent.

The level of concern about the impact of coronavirus on the economy is extremely high – greater than its impact on health, by 83 to 72 per cent. And, the polling tells us, the longer restrictions are in place, the less likely people are to comply with them.

Have we lost perspective? The average age of people who have died of Covid is 82, slightly above UK life expectancy, and the majority had comorbidities. A quarter of older fatalities were suffering from advanced dementia, for instance, while nearly half of patients in intensive care were obese or severely obese.

The choice between health and the economy is false – neither can function without the other. The NHS can only deliver first-class care if supported by a strong economy. Moreover, the diversion of resources to coronavirus has created increased risks to our long-term health. Heart attack A&E attendances have dropped 50 per cent. The number of men dying from cancer in private homes during the pandemic is roughly 50 per cent higher than the five-year average. Three million people in the UK missed cancer screenings this year. Mental health patients are waiting up to six months for help.

With a vaccine in sight, this is not a time to double down on restrictions, but to offer specific protection for the vulnerable while allowing the rest of society to get back to work. Rules should be few, clear and enforceable. Many will, understandably, cheer the proposed relaxation over Christmas. But it feels incoherent with the new tier system’s premise and will add confusion.

The public are increasingly aware that this is economically and socially unsustainable. Our society has been fundamentally reordered to control a disease that is deadly to very few. It is those few we need to protect – not by trashing the economy but through clear, nationwide guidelines.