The very long road back to normality
Finally there is light at the end of a very dark tunnel. The news of another vaccine, this time from Oxford University’s researchers and Astrazeneca, has raised hopes that the lurch from one lockdown to the next may one day be over. Boris Johnson told MPS yesterday that, from next week, a new tiered system would replace the current blanket controls in England. Christmas will see families reunited and church services will be allowed. It is a start, though only that.
The bad news is that the time it will take to roll out the vaccine means normality, or something approaching it, cannot be for months. The Prime Minister said a new year “surge” had to be avoided, which was why the restrictions would be even tougher than in the previous tiers.
He is resisting pressure to keep a full lockdown in place from Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, who said the last iteration of the tiered system patently did not work since it ended in a lockdown when cases went up. Mr Johnson was adamant this would not happen again. We shall see.
Even though all shops can open from next Wednesday, and outdoor sports will be allowed, the question everyone is asking now is how quickly we can be fully released from the straitjacket imposed by the Government. The Prime Minister indicated in the Commons that it could still be months away. The prospect that families will be allowed to meet up for a brief few days over Christmas is balanced by the continuation of restrictive measures, which in Tier 3 will feel like lockdown in all but name, and will wreck the hospitality sector.
One welcome change will be the return of fans to sports grounds after an absence of almost nine months, with just a few exceptions. Sporting venues in Tier 1 and 2 areas will be allowed to admit spectators on a limited basis, with a maximum of 4,000 or 50 per cent of capacity, whichever is lower, outdoors, and half that indoors. Similar arrangements need to be made for theatres which have been kept dark since March.
Mr Johnson said the geographical areas would be revealed this week, probably Thursday, which will feel like a national lottery with winners and losers. The Prime Minister said the tiers would cover entire regions, with no local relief for boroughs where the virus is less prevalent. That will be resented in places where Covid rates are low, though there is some mitigation. The tiers will be reviewed every 14 days and the expansion of routine and regular testing will help people return to work more quickly if they are told to isolate.
The best news concerns the latest vaccine breakthrough, this time with a product that will be easier to transport because it does not have to be kept at such low temperatures as the Pfizer and Moderna versions. This makes the logistics much easier and more viable. At £3 a dose, it is also expected to be considerably cheaper, an important consideration for developing nations which otherwise risk losing out.
Although the Oxford vaccine is said to be 70 per cent effective – and up to 90 per cent if taken in two doses – that is sufficient for those who need it. Moreover, it not only offers protection but may also block transmission to others. This means the Government will have to think carefully about whom to distribute the vaccine to first. If it stops onward transmission then it is more sensible to give it to those who may spread the virus, principally the young.
A vaccine that predominantly offers protection might be better given to the vulnerable, which is mostly the elderly. A mix of the two will be required and, helpfully, there are other vaccines coming on stream. The speedy development of these vaccines is a remarkable triumph of scientific research and Big Pharma expertise. Safety officials at the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency have yet to give the green light but they have far more data to look at than usual. Most medicines are approved after trials of around 5,000 people. The Oxford/ Astrazeneca vaccine had more than 20,000 volunteers and no one ended up in hospital or contracted severe disease.
Meanwhile, he bizarre nature of the quarantine rules was underlined when the Prime Minister’s web link to the House of Commons was cut and Matt Hancock had to stand in. Mr Johnson is isolating in Downing Street for a fortnight, despite having had Covid and testing negative. This experience shows how daft this requirement is and why it needs urgent replacement. Regular and quick testing now being piloted in Liverpool may well be the solution.
Moreover, while the imminence of a vaccine is unadulterated good news, this should not conceal the calamitous collateral impact of lockdowns and tiered restraints. They have been blunt and illiberal devices, arguably more harmful than the virus itself, and will continue to be so.
One welcome change will be the return of fans to sports grounds after almost nine months’ absence
The speedy development of these vaccines is a remarkable triumph of scientific research and Big Pharma