This great grudge game could be a mismatch
Coach wary of bookies’ verdict making his men huge favourites Recalled Ford urges side to raise game to keep perfect run
The record books show that the last time Wales played England on home soil outside Cardiff, it ended in a thumping 23-5 victory for the hosts.
Yet 69 years from that encounter at St Helen’s in Swansea in 1951, the widely-held expectation is that the result will be emphatically reversed up the road today at the Parc y Scarlets in Llanelli.
Indeed, this glorious old fixture, so often more akin to a ferocious expression of nationhood than a rugby match, has already been effectively declared a foregone conclusion by the bookmakers, who had England 1/12 favourites, with the handicap betting giving Wales a 16-point start.
One can only wonder what the great Welsh sides of the 1970s, or indeed the three Grand Slam-winning sides forged by previous head coach Warren Gatland, would have made of those odds.
But this is a new era, under Wayne Pivac, who must at times think about calling David Moyes, who had the impossible task of following Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United, for any tips on taking over from Gatland.
Just over a year ago, Wales came close to reaching the World Cup final in Japan, but since then, under Pivac, they have slumped to ninth in the world rankings, their uninspiring victory over Georgia last weekend ending a run of six defeats.
Eddie Jones, the England head coach, was at pains to play down any sense that his side deserve such a billing, highlighting problems that required fixing this week.
“We are not a team that is humming along and is like a big V8 that is revving down the highway. We are always trying to fix those problems.
“They have been sitting around with people talking about England and the challenge they will bring, so they have been prodded and told their coach is under pressure. There will be a lot of desire and intent.
“You look at their team and it is a strong team. They have got good players all across the park, so we can’t underestimate them.”
And yet a glance at the respective squads and their form suggests differently. England, after a sluggish opening game of the restart against Italy, appear to have gone beyond their level of performance at last year’s World Cup, particularly their ability to dominate the opposition physically and through defensive aggression.
Pivac’s post-world Cup rebuilding job is more severe, without the same breadth, depth and stability available to Jones.
Given France’s joyful resurgence and with Ireland also searching for a new identity under Andy Farrell, there is a sense that unless Wales stand and fight today, the European game could be heading for a return to the Anglo-french dominance that characterised the 1990s and first half of the 2000s.
Although Wales won their past two encounters against England on home soil, overall they have lost eight of their past 11 encounters with their old foes.
George Ford, back at fly-half in the sole change in personnel to the starting XV that beat Ireland last Saturday, is expecting a desperate reaction from Wales.
“We’re going to come up against a team this week playing against England that will do anything to win this game,” said Ford, who starts alongside the midfield of Owen Farrell and Henry Slade for the first time since South Africa in 2018.
“And that makes Wales a different beast. It shows what we need to be like. It shows that what we’ve done up to this point is not going to be good enough. That we need to raise our performance levels again to get a result.”
Victory today is likely to set up an England v France clash in the big, one-off Autumn Nations Cup final at Twickenham next Sunday.
A comprehensive victory for Jones’s side would underscore the belief that he has laid significant building blocks at the end of the first of the four-year World Cup cycle.
The challenge for Wales and the chasing pack is how quickly they can catch up and narrow the gap.
“I think if you were to look at 12 months ago, with England playing Wales, Wales would have had a higher number of Test caps than we would have had,” Jones said.
“Then teams evolve and you don’t know if you are looking at a two, three or four-year cycle for your team to evolve and change. But you are continually looking to upgrade your team, bring new players in, bring better players in than you have at the moment.
“One of the great things about this squad is that we have such competitiveness within this squad. The guys we have to leave out of the 25 are outstanding players and we are building up a good competitive spirit within the side.”
Jones is right. The depth of his squad is formidable, even if they have yet to broaden their attacking intent to reflect their forward dominance, bolstered further by the inclusion of six forwards on the England bench.
That could change, though, with Ford back pulling the strings. And, if they do attempt to cut loose, one fears that even those 16 points will not be enough to save Wales.