Figures suggest it is the vaccine, not lockdown, that is suppressing Covid – so let’s move on
Over the past few months, ministers and government scientists have been at pains to warn us that it is lockdown, and not the vaccination programme, that has been doing the heavy lifting in suppressing Covid in Britain.
In fact, the Government has adopted a slightly schizophrenic stance on vaccines, on the one hand insisting everyone should take up the offer of immunisation, while arguing the jabs are not doing much good at all.
Modellers from Warwick University, Imperial College London, Edinburgh University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have also warned that vaccination alone will not be enough to end the crisis.
So it was pleasing this week that new real-world data from Israel has confirmed that it is the vaccine, and not lockdown, that is largely behind their plummeting numbers.
Israel locked down on Dec 27, with infections among over-65s continuing to rise until mid-january, peaking at around 55 cases per 100,000. However, it was only when people began to receive their second Pfizer dose that cases dropped markedly to 30 per 100,000, and declined further as more people received the jab. The Israel Ministry of Health team also found steeper and swifter declines in the over-65s than younger unvaccinated groups.
The overall prevalence data also speaks volumes. While the estimated incidence rate in unvaccinated people in Israel is 91.5 per 100,000 person days, it is just 3.1 per 100,000 in those who have been vaccinated. The chance of dying from Covid is also six times higher in the unvaccinated, and the chance of hospitalisation, more than 10 times greater.
Dr Sharon Alroy-preis, of the Israel Ministry of Health, said it was clear that the immunisation programme offers
“real hope” that vaccination can control the pandemic.
Last month, research from NHS England and Manchester University also showed the stark difference in cases, admissions and deaths for elderly people who had been vaccinated compared with those who had not. Far from having little impact, the rate of Covid-related hospital admissions fell by 75 per cent in vaccinated 80 to 83-year-olds within 35 to 41 days of their first dose of the Pfizer jab. The rate of people getting Covid dropped by 70 per cent, with the number of positive tests falling from 15.3 per 100,000 people to 4.6.
Latest government data show that 66.1 per cent of the British population has received at least one dose, and 30 per cent are fully vaccinated.
It is highly probable we are now experiencing a level of herd immunity. The risk of catching Covid in Britain is very low, with just a one in 46,855 chance for unvaccinated people, rising to one in 97,616 after a first dose and one in 167,341 after a second dose, according to King’s College.
Deaths were down 41 per cent in the past week, and influenza and pneumonia have overtaken Covid deaths. Cases also keep falling despite mass testing in schools and workplaces – down 12 per cent in a week.
Most groups believe the R number is hovering around one, but it gets more difficult to tell as prevalence drops.
And even when people are catching coronavirus, they now appear to be getting a milder form of the disease, another sign that the vaccines are preventing the virus taking hold, and keeping viral load down.
Tim Spector, the lead scientist on the Zoe Covid Study app which has been monitoring symptomatic Covid, said: “With most adults now vaccinated in the UK, we’re seeing a milder form of Covid emerge with less than a third of people experiencing classic symptoms in the first week of the disease.”
While arguably Britain’s coronavirus epidemic is now over, the epidemic of missed diagnosis, job losses and educational regression will be felt for many years. It is time to move on, celebrate our vaccine achievement and start picking up the pieces of our broken economy and health service.