Flu deaths may reach 60,000, say experts

Health chiefs warn that lack of immunity means winter may see the worst influenza rates in 50 years

FLU deaths could be the worst for 50 years this winter because of lockdowns and social distancing, health chiefs have warned, amid the NHS’S biggest ever flu vaccination drive.

More than 35million people will be offered flu jabs, as concern mounts that prolonged restrictions on social contact have left Britain with little immunity.

Officials fear there could be up to 60,000 flu deaths this winter – the worst figure in Britain since the 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic – without a strong uptake of vaccines.

There is also concern about the effectiveness of this year’s jabs, because the lack of flu outbreaks last year made it harder for scientists to sample the virus and predict what the dominant strains would be this year .

Health chiefs said measures introduced in the past 18 months to protect the country against coronavirus would now put the public at greater risk of flu.

Prof Jonathan Van-tam, the deputy chief medical officer, said: “Not many people got flu last year because of Covid-19 restrictions, so there isn’t as much natural immunity in our communities as usual.

“We will see flu circulating this winter; it might be higher than usual and that makes it a significant public health concern.”

Officials highlighted modelling from the Academy of Medical Sciences that suggests this winter the UK could see between 15,000 and 60,000 flu deaths.

This compares with an average of 11,000 deaths a year in the five years before the pandemic.

It comes amid concern that the combination of Covid and flu could cripple health services, increasing the risk of another lockdown, or “Plan B” measures, such as compulsory masks, vaccine passports or a return to working from home.

The NHS has already begun its record rollout of flu jabs, as well as that for Covid boosters.

But today health chiefs will urge those who are eligible for jabs to have them, with the launch of a major campaign to drive take-up.

Everyone over the age of 50 and below the age of 16 will be offered flu vaccines, along with pregnant women, health and care workers, and millions with underlying health conditions.

At the same time, booster Covid jabs will be offered to about 30million people – including all those over 50.

Health officials expressed concern that the public underestimated the combined threats of the two viruses. Those infected with both have twice the death risk of those who only contract Covid, research suggests.

Polling of 3,000 adults commissioned by the Cabinet Office found one third were unaware that coronavirus and flu could circulate at the same time.

Prof Van-tam said: “Covid-19 will still be circulating and with more people mixing indoors, sadly some increases are possible. For the first time we will have Covid-19 and flu co-circulating.

“We need to take this seriously and defend ourselves and the NHS by getting the annual flu jab and the Covid-19 booster when called.

“Both these viruses are serious: they can both spread easily, cause hospitalisation

‘Not many people got flu last year because of Covid-19 restrictions, so there isn’t as much natural immunity’

and they can both be fatal. It is really important that people get their vaccines as soon as they can.”

Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, said: “This year we are rolling out the largest flu vaccine programme in our history, alongside the new Covid-19 booster vaccine rollout; both are important to provide vital protection not only to yourself, but also your loved ones, while also helping to ease pressure on the NHS.”

A new film campaign will today urge those eligible for the flu vaccine and Covid booster jab to book their appointments as soon as possible.

Those not eligible for a free flu jab can make an appointment for a paid-for dose at pharmacies, while a number of employers offer free vaccines.

Those eligible for flu jabs can book them through pharmacies, or they can wait for their GP surgery to contact them.

Those eligible for a Covid booster jab are being told to wait until they are contacted, although health and social care workers can book one through the NHS website.