The non-covid public health crisis
Official figures showing that nearly 10,000 more people than usual have died in the past four months from non-covid reasons are deeply troubling. Excess deaths are an inevitable consequence of a pandemic but they now seem to be associated with the means deployed to mitigate it. The lockdowns and the constant exhortation to “Protect the NHS” have had two obvious consequences.
One is that getting to see a GP in person has become much more difficult, with access rationed through telephone triage and waiting in the surgery no longer allowed. Second is that people who might in the past have sought a diagnosis for a health condition have been put off from doing so.
Another ramification has been the sudden surge in patients attending A&E with serious illnesses that require hospitalisation. The knock-on effects include pressure on occupancy and ambulances stuck on hospital forecourts unable to unload their patients until beds are available. This means fewer ambulances are available for emergencies.
In addition, the NHS is still struggling to clear the backlog of treatment created by the pandemic, with 5.8 million people in England waiting for an elective procedure, the highest number ever recorded. The growth in obesity among young children is another issue at least partially linked to enforced indolence and a lack of exercise during the lockdowns, and is storing up problems for future health care when they reach adulthood.
Why are A&E units suddenly overwhelmed? Why is there such an increase in non-covid fatalities? These are serious questions that urgently need answering, and yet beyond promising large sums of extra money for no specific purpose other than “getting through the winter” no one seems to be addressing them.
If it is the result of a lack of preventative care during the lockdowns then that has important implications for the handling of this and future pandemics. Boris Johnson has not ruled out another set of restrictions should the NHS come under greater pressure in the coming months.
A major crisis is looming, especially if there is both a cold winter and a bad flu season. This will be upon us very soon, doubtless accompanied by fresh demands for yet another lockdown to “Protect the NHS”. In view of the consequential impact on public health in general this must be resisted at all costs.