History beckons in Belfast as Sinn Fein exploits cost of living fears

SINN FEIN is on the brink of a historic election victory which would make it the biggest party in Northern Ireland for the first time, despite warnings from the DUP that the party is planning a referendum on Irish reunification by stealth.

The DUP has said Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom is at stake in today’s vote after Sinn Fein took a commanding lead by focusing on curbing the soaring cost of living and cutting long NHS queues while playing down any talk of an immediate border poll.

Victory could see Michelle O’neill claim the post of First Minister for the first time since the Northern Ireland Assembly was set up in 1998.

“There has been a moderation of nationalist rhetoric,” said Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen’s University Belfast. “Sinn Fein understand the need for a broader appeal and the majority of their supporters are more concerned about long queues for healthcare and the cost of living than a border poll.”

The latest polls before voting began have Sinn Fein winning 26.6 per cent of first preference votes in an election based on the Single Transferable Vote system, which is a form of proportional representation. The DUP is on 18.2 per cent and in equal second place with the Alliance, a cross-community centrist party that is yet to take a stance on the border poll.

The DUP has put its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol at the centre of its campaign. The Northern Ireland Executive collapsed in February when Paul Givan, the DUP First Minister, quit in protest over the Protocol.

Prof Hayward said divides between unionists were made worse by UK government threats to override the Protocol, which prevents a hard border with Ireland and the EU.

Nearly a third of Northern Irish consumers saying they would struggle to deal with an unexpected £300 bill and energy prices rising. “The cost of living, definitely,” said Mark Patterson, a 49-year-old baker from Belfast, when asked what was the biggest issue in Northern Ireland. Liam, a 22-year-old Queen’s student, said the Irish Sea border was a major issue for Unionists but it paled beside rising costs.

Sir Jeffery Donaldson, the DUP’S third leader in less than a year since Arlene Foster was forced to resign, said anyone who believed Sinn Fein would not use an election victory to build momentum to a ‘divisive’ referendum was “deluded”.

He pointed to adverts taken out by the US Friends of Sinn Fein group in the

and New York Times last month which called for a referendum on a united Ireland.

Ms O’neill, the former deputy first minister, said Brexit, which the DUP supported, had been “a real catalyst” for the debate over reunification because 55.8 per cent of Northern Irish voters supported Remain.

But if Sinn Fein can turn its strong showing in the last Irish elections into a victory it would raise the prospect of the party ruling both North and South and the likelihood of a border poll.

The Good Friday Agreement recognised the right of people on the island of Ireland to reunify if voters backed the decision in border polls.

A poll last year found 30 per cent of Northern Irish voters backed reunification but different research found that 50 per cent of people were in favour of remaining part of the UK.

There are unionist fears that demographic change will see Catholic, traditionally nationalist, voters become the majority in Northern Ireland for the first time by a narrow margin when results of a 2021 census are published at the end of this year.

Sir Jeffrey says he will only enter into power-sharing if other parties support his demand that the Protocol be removed or replaced in negotiations between London and Brussels.