Odesa’s mission to feed the world at risk
Ukraine’s major Black Sea port becomes the key battlefield in struggle for global agricultural exports
‘Without our agricultural exports, dozens of countries in different parts of the world are already on the brink of food shortages’
It was an unusual format for trade talks. Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, and Denys Shmyhal, the Ukrainian prime minister, had barely begun to discuss the intricacies of grain exports when the wail of an air-raid siren sent them hurrying to a bomb shelter beneath the port of Odesa.
Later that evening, missiles slammed into the city again. Seven huge explosions destroyed targets including a warehouse and a shopping centre. At least one person was killed and five were injured.
Odesa is not a frontline city in the conventional sense, and has effectively been secure from ground attack since Ukrainian forces stopped the Russians from crossing the Bug river in March.
However, in the war of economic attrition, it is the key battleground and, as Mr Michel warned, a Russian blockade on the city’s agricultural exports could have grave worldwide consequences.
Before the war, Ukraine was the world’s fourth-largest exporter of maize and its sixth-largest wheat exporter, according to International Grains Council data. Much of that went through Odesa’s commercial port – the vibrant, slightly seedy and most vital harbour on this side of the Black Sea.
Now, a Russian naval flotilla has blockaded the trade.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, warned this week that, unless the port reopens, “the situation can become downright terrible”.
In an appeal for assistance on the issue yesterday, he said: “For the first time in decades, there is no usual movement of the merchant fleet, no usual port functioning in Odesa. Probably this has never happened in Odesa since World War Two.
“Without our agricultural exports, dozens of countries in different parts of the world are already on the brink of food shortages.
“This is a direct consequence of Russian aggression, which can be overcome only together – by all Europeans, by the whole free world.
“It can be overcome by putting pressure on Russia, by effectively forcing Russia to stop this disgraceful war.”
The blockade is one component of the economic war between Russia, Ukraine and the West, that may prove more decisive than the battles fought with tanks and artillery in Donbas.
Ukraine’s Western allies have imposed crippling sanctions on Russia in the hope of eventually exhausting its ability to resupply and its population’s will to fight. Russia, in turn, has begun its own systematic campaign of attrition aimed not only at crippling Ukraine’s economy but creating maximal disruption to international commodity markets.
Besides the blockade, this includes missile strikes on railway junctions, electricity substations, and fuel depots – all needed to keep military, civilian and commercial traffic moving.
It is a slow-moving form of war, and most experts think the true effect of Western sanctions on Russia will only really begin to bite in the autumn.
Normal economic life in Ukraine is also far from collapse, but the Russian strategy is undeniably starting to hurt.
On Friday, a United Nations official said almost 25million tonnes of grain are stuck in Ukraine because of the blockade and other infrastructure challenges. The UN has linked this disruption to volatility in international financial markets and a surge in commodity prices.
In Ukraine, fuel shortages are acute and passenger and freight trains are frequently forced to re-route or pause in response to attacks on the network.
Ukrainian officials have claimed the Russian strategy not only involves a blockade, but large scale theft.
Yesterday, the country’s defence intelligence agency said grain and sunflower seeds in occupied parts of the Zaporizhzhya region had been loaded on to trucks for transport to Crimea.
It reported similar requisitions in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, saying much of the crop was destined for the Middle East.
In a statement, the agency said: “A significant part of the stolen grain is on dry cargo ships under the Russian flag in the Mediterranean. The most likely destination is Syria.”
Mykola Solskyi, Ukraine’s agriculture minister, said Kyiv regards the ships’ cargoes as stolen goods and said work was “under way so that this stolen grain can be quickly seized”.
On Sunday, Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, said on a visit to Kyiv that his government was trying to help Ukraine work out how to get exports moving again.
The military options are limited – Ukraine does not have a navy that can directly challenge the Kremlin’s Black Sea Fleet or offer escorts to commercial shipping. The United States and other Nato countries who have such resources have ruled out confronting the Russian ships.
This leaves an air and missile war, with Ukraine using drones and onshore missile batteries to challenge Russia’s maritime supremacy. It has had some successes – the sinking of the Moskva on April 14 deprived Russia’s fleet of its main anti-aircraft asset.
Moscow responded by installing land-based air defence systems on Snake Island, near the Danube delta.
In recent weeks a duel has begun there, with Ukraine using jets and drones to stop Russia consolidating its foothold, while Russia tried to reinforce the island as a base from which to target the Ukrainian air force.
In the meantime, the alternative is to find land routes, although many of them are already overburdened.
Mr Solskyi said on Monday that exports via Romania remained vital.
The other alternative is sending grain to Baltic ports in Poland for export further afield.
After visiting Odesa’s commercial port with Mr Shmyhal on Monday, Mr Michel said: “I saw silos full of grain, wheat and corn ready for export.
“This badly needed food is stranded because of the Russian war and blockade of Black Sea ports, causing dramatic consequences for vulnerable countries. We need a global response.”