We had to agree to the Protocol. Now we have to scrap it
The EU may well retaliate against Britain, but the Government has a duty to Northern Ireland
And so the great drama of our exit from the EU may yet have one final act. Northern Ireland is about to return to centre stage. Maroš Sefčovič, the EU negotiator, told Liz Truss yesterday that there could be no change to the Protocol. The Foreign Secretary responded that the Government would then have “no choice but to act”. The stage is set for confrontation.
Last week’s Stormont elections have forced the Government’s hand. Of course, the real story from the elections was not a supposed nationalist landslide. Unionism collectively still has more seats and more votes than nationalism. Sinn Féin has no more seats than in 2017. The real story is the one that was obvious before the elections – that unionists and Unionist parties have withdrawn consent for the Protocol arrangements, and that Northern Ireland can’t be governed properly until this situation changes.
We could endlessly go over the circumstances that produced the Protocol in 2019, as many seem to want – preferring that to dealing with today’s problems. We knew the deal was far from perfect. We never wanted the arrangements that limited trade into Northern Ireland. But our Protocol got rid of the hated “backstop” that would have left us stuck in the EU customs union and unable to run a trade or economic policy of our own.
Moreover, we had no walk-away option, thanks to Messrs Benn and Burt, and their Surrender Act in Parliament, which made “no deal” impossible. If we had not signed up in October 2019, we would have faced endless further prevarication, the unravelling of the Brexit vote, and the complete disintegration of our constitutional process and confidence in our Westminster system. That’s why we did the deal. It was the right thing to do. If we hadn’t, I think we would still be in the EU now.
Of course, none of us could have imagined that the Protocol would get the handling it got. The EU weaponised it in the 2020 trade negotiations, tried to impose a vaccine export ban across the land border, resorted to legal processes that would, and may yet, end in the EU Court of Justice, wanted every aspect of Northern Irish trade obsessively policed, and, as the situation deteriorated, refused to agree to anything that would meaningfully improve the situation.
When I put forward proposals to renegotiate the Protocol last summer, I hoped that the very obvious problems would encourage a rethink by the EU. I was willing to give the process time and to see whether the EU might become less obdurate. With what looked like another Covid lockdown coming and strain on our supply chains, I wasn’t convinced that last December was the right moment to act unilaterally.
That’s now changed. I no longer take that view. Covid is in the rear-view mirror. The international situation has changed utterly and no one can say Britain is anything other than a constructive player in support of European interests in the Ukraine war. If the EU won’t help fix this problem while the new mood prevails, I can’t see that it ever will.
The Government has no option now other than to act unilaterally to disapply part or all of the Protocol. The Belfast/ Good Friday Agreement, which the Protocol is supposed to protect, is on life support. There is an imminent threat to our ability to govern Northern Ireland and protect its people’s economic, trading and security interests. It is obviously essential for the UK Government to be able to govern the whole country properly. That is why it needs to act – and has the absolute right and duty to do so.
We may, of course, face EU retaliation, although it would be disproportionate to the trade involved, only arguably legal and entirely self-defeating. I am not convinced every EU member’s heart would be in it either. Logic may yet prevail. If it does happen, it will complicate things, but we should not fear it. Indeed it will only strengthen the case, which exists already, for dramatic economic reform, tax reductions, investment incentives, and tariff liberalisation for this country.
Nevertheless, there will be turbulence. To get through it, the Government will need to show strategic sense and consistent determination to deliver its goal. I admit to a degree of concern that – aside from the Brexit talks and vaccine procurement – these have not generally been the most characteristic features of this Government’s actions, as the current on/off discussion over an energy windfall tax rather illustrates.
The Government needs to up its game. Once it has acted, it cannot let itself be defeated, because to do so would mean profound damage to our country’s interests. So it must make sure it is ready.
Sometimes governments and their leaders must just do the right thing. Fortunately, doing the right thing is usually also the best thing for our country. Boris Johnson and Liz Truss have shown they are leaders in Ukraine. They must now show the same determination in Northern Ireland, and finally re-establish self-government for the whole of the UK.
They deserve the backing of the whole Conservative Party in doing so. They should be given it.