‘Catastrophic’ food crisis looms for years

A GLOBAL food crisis of “catastrophic” magnitude brought on by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could last for years and lead to civil unrest and famine, a report warns.

Rising food prices and dwindling supplies may last to 2024 and “possibly beyond” according to S&P.

The ratings agency said the food shock will “drag on GDP growth, fiscal performance, and social stability”, with areas such as the Middle East and Africa hit hardest.

Global food prices soared to an alltime high in the early weeks of the conflict in Ukraine, which has decimated output from one of the world’s top producing regions.

Analyst Samuel Tilleray said predictions that the crisis will be a “single-year shock” looked overly optimistic.

He said: “While even a one-year shock of the magnitude observed would be likely to cause malnourishment and increase food poverty, if our thesis of fertiliser shortage and export restriction-driven multiyear shock plays out, the impact could be catastrophic, absent remedial measures.”

S&P predicted competition for agricultural commodities would build through this year and the next, as countries

‘Even a one-year shock of the magnitude observed would be likely to cause malnourishment’

vye to secure domestic supply. Poorer countries have “limited capacity” to replace these lost imports, the report said, risking food shortages.

Protests have broken out in some countries over the cost of food, stoked by fertiliser shortages and high energy costs. Mr Tilleray said protests in Peru and the crisis in Sri Lanka were “early political fallouts” of the war in Ukraine.